TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119984
Played Sep 12Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
2.07
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111168111151210
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
6111168111151210
H2H Artur Zmijewski 3–4 Cezary Pawlik Artur Zmijewski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zmijewski beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:19What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (56%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1433 vs Pawlik 1552
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 60% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 50% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Pawlik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 2.07 / Pawlik 1.62
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Pawlik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119984
Zmijewski2.07
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Pawlik1.62
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 126 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmijewski3wins
AwayPawlik4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderPawlik leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski50%3 of 6
AwayPawlikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski6Pawlik1n = 7Zmijewski took 6 of 7
S2Zmijewski1Pawlik6n = 7Pawlik took 6 of 7
S3Zmijewski2Pawlik5n = 7Pawlik took 5 of 7
S4Zmijewski2Pawlik3n = 5Pawlik took 3 of 5
S5Zmijewski2Pawlik1n = 3Zmijewski took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmijewskiPawlikZ − PBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match39.338.9+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 125 vs 287 / 49158.4%58.5%73 / 125 vs 287 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikZmijewski 2.07/Pawlik 1.62
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 12 · 18:00A. Zmijewski49118127113C. Pawlik43811101132
WSep 4 · 22:00A. Zmijewski541191211113C. Pawlik4451114772
LSep 4 · 18:00A. Zmijewski351541241C. Pawlik49131114113
LAug 8 · 21:35A. Zmijewski3711111051C. Pawlik4481312113
WAug 8 · 15:35A. Zmijewski331111113C. Pawlik146350
LAug 1 · 22:00A. Zmijewski4411881162C. Pawlik39211114113
LAug 1 · 18:00A. Zmijewski2361520C. Pawlik391117113
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 12 · 20:20A. Zmijewski1.831112118113O. Jedrzejowski1.83131021142LSep 12 · 18:45K. Malcher2.9011114113A. Zmijewski1.32971191WSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113WSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052LSep 12 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.50711911102M. Wolny2.40115113123LSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.9111135113A. Zmijewski1.809111151WSep 9 · 23:20K. Delikatny2.2011761192A. Zmijewski1.61811117113LSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392WSep 9 · 21:00A. Barton5.504330A. Zmijewski1.131111113
C. Pawlik10
WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113LSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113WSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.691191110113C. Pawlik1.9771171282WSep 12 · 01:10D. Pyrek2.954370C. Pawlik1.321111113LSep 12 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.651191371O. Jedrzejowski2.0561115113WSep 11 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.491111113M. Wozniczka2.333530WSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113
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