TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114353
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117611511––
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.24
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:24 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
911117611511––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 3–30 Cezary Pawlik Michal Natkaniec has won 3 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pawlik beat Natkaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (73%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-30 in 33
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 27 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1278 vs Pawlik 1567
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 289 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 0% vs Pawlik 60%
Pawlik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 10% vs Pawlik 50%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -5 · Pawlik -1
Natkaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (60%) is below what odds imply (81%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 3.40 / Pawlik 1.24
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Pawlik)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13114353
Natkaniec3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Pawlik1.24
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 120 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it92% 70 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 94 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec0wins
AwayPawlik10wins
Pawlik leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec2Pawlik8n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S2Natkaniec0Pawlik10n = 10Pawlik took 10 of 10
S3Natkaniec3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Natkaniec0Pawlik5n = 5Pawlik took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecPawlikN − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.236.6−8.4per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 383 vs 281 / 48133.7%58.4%129 / 383 vs 281 / 481Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikNatkaniec 3.40/Pawlik 1.24
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.6%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec—61211101C. Pawlik—11142123
LJul 24 · 22:00M. Natkaniec—4440C. Pawlik—1111113
LJul 24 · 18:00M. Natkaniec—6131181C. Pawlik—11152113
LJul 3 · 22:00M. Natkaniec—116491C. Pawlik—71111113
LJul 3 · 18:00M. Natkaniec—81490C. Pawlik—1116113
LJun 26 · 22:25M. Natkaniec—9460C. Pawlik—1111113
LJun 26 · 20:00M. Natkaniec—8101191C. Pawlik—11128113
LJun 13 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—2770C. Pawlik—1111113
LJun 12 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—117871C. Pawlik—11111113
LMay 23 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—91160C. Pawlik—1113113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123LSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113
C. Pawlik10
WSep 11 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.491111113M. Wozniczka2.333530LSep 11 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.609119111O. Jedrzejowski2.1011911133WSep 11 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.3411911113D. Pyrek2.85911791WSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482WSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182LSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113LSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
C. Pawlik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.