TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113308
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1158117111171113
Dawid Pyrek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Pyrek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1158117111171113
H2H Michal Natkaniec 5–5 Dawid Pyrek Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pyrek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1315 vs Pyrek 1345
Pyrek
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 20% vs Pyrek 40%
Pyrek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 40% vs Pyrek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -1 · Pyrek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pyrek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 1.85 / Pyrek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pyrek)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13113308
Natkaniec1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Pyrek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 95 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it82% 74 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec5wins
AwayPyrek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniec40%2 of 5
AwayPyrek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec5Pyrek5n = 10split evenly
S2Natkaniec4Pyrek6n = 10Pyrek took 6 of 10
S3Natkaniec3Pyrek7n = 10Pyrek took 7 of 10
S4Natkaniec6Pyrek4n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S5Natkaniec4Pyrek2n = 6Natkaniec took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecPyrekN − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.042.4+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecPyrekBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 388 vs 381 / 77734%49%132 / 388 vs 381 / 777Avg sets wonper match1.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PyrekNatkaniec 1.85/Pyrek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pyrek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pyrek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 10 · 21:10M. Natkaniec—13471182D. Pyrek—1111115113
LJul 10 · 16:50M. Natkaniec—1210961D. Pyrek—101211113
WDec 26 · 22:10M. Natkaniec—212711113D. Pyrek—111011482
WDec 26 · 17:50M. Natkaniec—791111113D. Pyrek—11119842
WJun 22 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—1112811113D. Pyrek—51411692
LJun 21 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—1185101D. Pyrek—71111123
WJun 7 · 02:00M. Natkaniec—12114113D. Pyrek—1061141
LJun 6 · 16:25M. Natkaniec—89111172D. Pyrek—111176113
WMay 29 · 24:45M. Natkaniec—911119113D. Pyrek—11511182
LMay 28 · 22:20M. Natkaniec—5111281D. Pyrek—11914113
M. Natkaniec10
LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113WAug 28 · 18:25M. Natkaniec2.90111111113M. Wolny1.35139791LAug 28 · 16:50M. Natkaniec5.65125100J. Oracz1.091411123LAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka1.4311511113M. Natkaniec2.55911481
D. Pyrek10
WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113LSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102LSep 4 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.60741381J. Oracz1.23111111113WSep 4 · 20:00M. Krutak1.7561090D. Pyrek1.951112113LSep 4 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.531211113D. Pyrek2.3810430LSep 4 · 18:25D. Pyrek1.71911101192A. Kubiak2.00116124113LSep 4 · 16:50D. Pyrek3.6551181122J. Oracz1.22118114113LSep 4 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.6011118113D. Pyrek2.20811181
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
Sep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3.30C. Pawlik1.25—Sep 11 · 18:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—Sep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40C. Pawlik1.24—Sep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 12 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.03D. Pyrek1.65—Sep 12 · 24:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—
D. Pyrek
Sep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15M. Wozniczka1.60—Sep 11 · 18:25D. Pyrek2.43O. Jedrzejowski1.45—Sep 11 · 19:10D. Pyrek2.85C. Pawlik1.34—Sep 11 · 20:00D. Pyrek3.20J. Oracz1.27—Sep 11 · 21:10D. Pyrek2.18M. Wozniczka1.56—Sep 11 · 22:25D. Pyrek3.35J. Oracz1.25—Sep 12 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.65M. Natkaniec2.03—Sep 12 · 01:10D. Pyrek2.95C. Pawlik1.32—Sep 12 · 02:45D. Pyrek2.43O. Jedrzejowski1.45—
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