TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13036562
Played Aug 28Finished
Marcin Wozniczka
Home
1.43
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119511114118––
Michal Natkaniec
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Wozniczka to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
119511114118––
H2H Marcin Wozniczka 19–7 Michal Natkaniec Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (64%)
Wozniczka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-7 in 26
Wozniczka
Correct
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wozniczka 1483 vs Natkaniec 1294
Wozniczka
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wozniczka 40% vs Natkaniec 20%
Wozniczka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wozniczka 40% vs Natkaniec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wozniczka -3 · Natkaniec -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Wozniczka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Natkaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWozniczka 1.43 / Natkaniec 2.55
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Wozniczka)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13036562
Wozniczka1.43
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 48 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Natkaniec2.55
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog31% won 33 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back14% 10 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWozniczka7wins
AwayNatkaniec3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWozniczka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWozniczka75%6 of 8
AwayNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wozniczka8Natkaniec2n = 10Wozniczka took 8 of 10
S2Wozniczka5Natkaniec5n = 10split evenly
S3Wozniczka4Natkaniec6n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S4Wozniczka6Natkaniec4n = 10Wozniczka took 6 of 10
S5Wozniczka2Natkaniec1n = 3Wozniczka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWozniczkaNatkaniecW − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.1+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWozniczkaNatkaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 361 vs 128 / 37858.5%33.9%211 / 361 vs 128 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.21.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.933.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WozniczkaWozniczka 1.43/Natkaniec 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Wozniczka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wozniczka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka—11511113M. Natkaniec—911481
WJul 11 · 24:00M. Wozniczka—11114113M. Natkaniec—471191
WJul 10 · 16:00M. Wozniczka—101113113M. Natkaniec—1261161
WJul 4 · 24:45M. Wozniczka—11411113M. Natkaniec—811231
LJul 3 · 18:45M. Wozniczka—1291112102M. Natkaniec—1011714123
LJun 13 · 01:10M. Wozniczka—1188101M. Natkaniec—31111123
WJun 12 · 19:10M. Wozniczka—117411113M. Natkaniec—91111892
WApr 24 · 21:10M. Wozniczka—1111411113M. Natkaniec—88111362
WApr 24 · 16:50M. Wozniczka—11117123M. Natkaniec—7811101
LMar 15 · 24:10M. Wozniczka—511921M. Natkaniec—11511113
M. Wozniczka10
LSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862LSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482LAug 29 · 02:20M. Wozniczka2.486940J. Oracz1.461111113LAug 29 · 24:45M. Krutak1.901111123M. Wozniczka1.8096100WAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 23:10M. Wozniczka1.40911111092M. Wolny2.75117312113WAug 28 · 22:00M. Wozniczka2.3711411143O. Jedrzejowski1.528117121LAug 28 · 20:20M. Wozniczka2.659930J. Oracz1.401111113WAug 28 · 18:45M. Krutak1.8610870M. Wozniczka1.831211113WAug 28 · 18:00O. Jedrzejowski1.539111191M. Wozniczka2.3811613113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113WAug 28 · 18:25M. Natkaniec2.90111111113M. Wolny1.35139791LAug 28 · 16:50M. Natkaniec5.65125100J. Oracz1.091411123
Upcoming Matches
M. Wozniczka
Sep 11 · 17:35M. Wozniczka2.60J. Oracz1.41—Sep 11 · 19:35M. Wozniczka1.96O. Jedrzejowski1.69—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Wozniczka1.44M. Natkaniec2.45—Sep 11 · 21:10M. Wozniczka1.56D. Pyrek2.18—Sep 11 · 22:50M. Wozniczka2.33C. Pawlik1.49—Sep 11 · 23:35M. Wozniczka2.60J. Oracz1.39—Sep 12 · 01:35M. Wozniczka1.96O. Jedrzejowski1.69—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Wozniczka1.44M. Natkaniec2.45—
M. Natkaniec
Sep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3.30C. Pawlik1.25—Sep 11 · 18:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—Sep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40C. Pawlik1.24—Sep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 12 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.03D. Pyrek1.65—Sep 12 · 24:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—
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