TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13037042
Played Aug 28Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
2.90
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113119117119––
Michal Wolny
Away
1.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:33 and never touched — 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Wolny to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
1113119117119––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 3–13 Michal Wolny Michal Natkaniec has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Wolny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Wolny
Wrong
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1281 vs Wolny 1366
Wolny
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 0% vs Wolny 60%
Wolny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 20% vs Wolny 70%
Wolny
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -5 · Wolny +1
Natkaniec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Wolny) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wolny form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 2.90 / Wolny 1.35
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Wolny)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13037042
Natkaniec2.90
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest11%takes the first set · 1 of 9
As underdog31% won 33 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back14% 10 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Wolny1.35
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 57 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec3wins
AwayWolny7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWolny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniec60%3 of 5
AwayWolny100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec5Wolny5n = 10split evenly
S2Natkaniec6Wolny4n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S3Natkaniec5Wolny5n = 10split evenly
S4Natkaniec3Wolny5n = 8Wolny took 5 of 8
S5Natkaniec0Wolny4n = 4Wolny took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecWolnyN − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.2−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecWolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 380 vs 267 / 55733.7%47.9%128 / 380 vs 267 / 557Avg sets wonper match1.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WolnyNatkaniec 2.90/Wolny 1.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.8%
Wolny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Natkaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 17:10M. Natkaniec—111411113M. Wolny—816981
WApr 25 · 01:10M. Natkaniec—11711113M. Wolny—311781
LApr 24 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—7111110102M. Wolny—118712123
LJan 17 · 24:35M. Natkaniec—6580M. Wolny—1111113
WJan 16 · 18:35M. Natkaniec—1111113M. Wolny—9970
LJan 3 · 01:45M. Natkaniec—8111051M. Wolny—11612113
LJan 2 · 19:45M. Natkaniec—711111192M. Wolny—115813113
LDec 5 · 23:00M. Natkaniec—1371171M. Wolny—111113113
LNov 7 · 23:50M. Natkaniec—61151152M. Wolny—118115113
LNov 7 · 16:10M. Natkaniec—131181092M. Wolny—1191112113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113LAug 28 · 16:50M. Natkaniec5.65125100J. Oracz1.091411123LAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka1.4311511113M. Natkaniec2.55911481
M. Wolny10
LSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:35M. Wolny1.3381111113A. Barton3.10119861LSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952LSep 7 · 05:10W. Stechly5.20117119113M. Wolny1.1281151172WSep 7 · 03:35J. Slawomir1.85111011862M. Wolny1.85512711113LSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192WSep 4 · 03:30A. Barton4.258170M. Wolny1.191111113WSep 4 · 02:45M. Wolny1.64711117113A. Staniczek2.1411381112LSep 4 · 01:10M. Wolny1.831011411122J. Skorupa1.87129111143WAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
Sep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3.30C. Pawlik1.25—Sep 11 · 18:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—Sep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40C. Pawlik1.24—Sep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 12 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.03D. Pyrek1.65—Sep 12 · 24:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—
M. Wolny1 of 1 neutral
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