TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13036556
Played Aug 28Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
5.65
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
12145111012––––
Jacek Oracz
Away
1.09
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:55 and never touched — 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
12145111012––––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 7–26 Jacek Oracz Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.09 (84%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-26 in 33
Oracz
Correct
gap of 19 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1287 vs Oracz 1518
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 20% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 30% vs Oracz 50%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -4 · Oracz -2
Natkaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (60%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 5.65 / Oracz 1.09
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Oracz)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13036556
Natkaniec5.65
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As underdog31% won 33 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back14% 10 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Oracz1.09
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 295 of 409
Up 2–0, closes it98% 184 of 187
Up 1–0, closes it88% 238 of 271
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec1wins
AwayOracz9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Natkaniec1Oracz9n = 10Oracz took 9 of 10
S3Natkaniec2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Natkaniec1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecOraczN − OBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.239.5−10.3per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 379 vs 645 / 89833.8%71.8%128 / 379 vs 645 / 898Avg sets wonper match1.52.5per matchAvg pointsper match33.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczNatkaniec 5.65/Oracz 1.09
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.3%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 24:45M. Natkaniec—3911101J. Oracz—11119123
WJul 24 · 18:45M. Natkaniec—1191011113J. Oracz—91112492
LJul 11 · 01:10M. Natkaniec—5750J. Oracz—1111113
LJul 10 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—101118842J. Oracz—1291611113
LJun 27 · 01:10M. Natkaniec—7530J. Oracz—1111113
LJun 26 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—71180J. Oracz—1113113
LJun 12 · 22:25M. Natkaniec—6950J. Oracz—1111113
LJun 12 · 20:00M. Natkaniec—1241151J. Oracz—101113113
LMay 10 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—47120J. Oracz—1111143
LMay 9 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—6890J. Oracz—1111113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113WAug 28 · 18:25M. Natkaniec2.90111111113M. Wolny1.35139791LAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka1.4311511113M. Natkaniec2.55911481
J. Oracz10
WSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471LSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291WSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 21:10A. Fomin2.7561090J. Oracz1.401112113WSep 5 · 20:20K. Gudzik2.60117581J. Oracz1.4281111113WSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 17:35A. Krezel2.6097111172J. Oracz1.41111129113WAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
Sep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3.30C. Pawlik1.25—Sep 11 · 18:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—Sep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40C. Pawlik1.24—Sep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 12 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.03D. Pyrek1.65—Sep 12 · 24:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—
J. Oracz
Sep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41M. Wozniczka2.60—Sep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.21M. Natkaniec3.70—Sep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27D. Pyrek3.20—Sep 11 · 21:35J. Oracz1.49O. Jedrzejowski2.34—Sep 11 · 22:25J. Oracz1.25D. Pyrek3.35—Sep 11 · 23:35J. Oracz1.39M. Wozniczka2.60—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Oracz1.21M. Natkaniec3.70—Sep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.69C. Pawlik1.97—
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