TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13038519
Played Aug 29Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
3.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71131113111210117
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:40 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Natkaniec to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
71131113111210117
H2H Michal Natkaniec 2–3 Oskar Jedrzejowski Michal Natkaniec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:40What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1311 vs Jedrzejowski 1480
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 40% vs Jedrzejowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 30% vs Jedrzejowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -3 · Jedrzejowski +2
Natkaniec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Jedrzejowski) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 3.30 / Jedrzejowski 1.27
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Jedrzejowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13038519
Natkaniec3.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 33 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back14% 10 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Jedrzejowski1.27
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 68 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 47 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeNatkaniec2wins
AwayJedrzejowski3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJedrzejowski leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJedrzejowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec2Jedrzejowski3n = 5Jedrzejowski took 3 of 5
S2Natkaniec2Jedrzejowski3n = 5Jedrzejowski took 3 of 5
S3Natkaniec1Jedrzejowski4n = 5Jedrzejowski took 4 of 5
S4Natkaniec0Jedrzejowski3n = 3Jedrzejowski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricNatkaniecJedrzejowskiN − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.838.4−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecJedrzejowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 386 vs 113 / 19733.9%57.4%131 / 386 vs 113 / 197Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejowskiNatkaniec 3.30/Jedrzejowski 1.27
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.6%
Jedrzejowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Natkaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 28 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—115118113O. Jedrzejowski—81151162
LJul 4 · 02:20M. Natkaniec—411681O. Jedrzejowski—11711113
WJul 3 · 20:20M. Natkaniec—111178113O. Jedrzejowski—87111172
LApr 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec—68100O. Jedrzejowski—1111123
LApr 18 · 20:20M. Natkaniec—5980O. Jedrzejowski—1111113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113WAug 28 · 18:25M. Natkaniec2.90111111113M. Wolny1.35139791LAug 28 · 16:50M. Natkaniec5.65125100J. Oracz1.091411123LAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka1.4311511113M. Natkaniec2.55911481
O. Jedrzejowski10
LSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113LSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113LSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113WSep 5 · 21:00O. Jedrzejowski1.6711124113G. Mucha2.103101171LSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590WSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133WSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski1.671112133G. Mucha2.10910110LAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
Sep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3.30C. Pawlik1.25—Sep 11 · 18:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—Sep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40C. Pawlik1.24—Sep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 12 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.03D. Pyrek1.65—Sep 12 · 24:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—
O. Jedrzejowski
Sep 11 · 17:10O. Jedrzejowski1.34M. Natkaniec2.85—Sep 11 · 18:25O. Jedrzejowski1.45D. Pyrek2.43—Sep 11 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski1.69M. Wozniczka1.96—Sep 11 · 20:45O. Jedrzejowski2.10C. Pawlik1.60—Sep 11 · 21:35O. Jedrzejowski2.34J. Oracz1.49—Sep 11 · 23:10O. Jedrzejowski1.34M. Natkaniec2.85—Sep 12 · 24:25O. Jedrzejowski2.10C. Pawlik1.60—Sep 12 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski1.69M. Wozniczka1.96—Sep 12 · 02:45O. Jedrzejowski1.45D. Pyrek2.43—
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