TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13038527
Played Aug 29Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
2.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111411131210611
Marcin Wozniczka
Away
1.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Wozniczka to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
91111411131210611
H2H Michal Natkaniec 7–19 Marcin Wozniczka Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Wozniczka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-19 in 26
Wozniczka
Correct
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1317 vs Wozniczka 1482
Wozniczka
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 60% vs Wozniczka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 30% vs Wozniczka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -2 · Wozniczka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Wozniczka) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wozniczka form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 2.90 / Wozniczka 1.35
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Wozniczka)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13038527
Natkaniec2.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 33 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back14% 10 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Wozniczka1.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 48 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec3wins
AwayWozniczka7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWozniczka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWozniczka75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec2Wozniczka8n = 10Wozniczka took 8 of 10
S2Natkaniec5Wozniczka5n = 10split evenly
S3Natkaniec6Wozniczka4n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S4Natkaniec4Wozniczka6n = 10Wozniczka took 6 of 10
S5Natkaniec1Wozniczka2n = 3Wozniczka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecWozniczkaN − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.8−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecWozniczkaBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 385 vs 209 / 36134%57.9%131 / 385 vs 209 / 361Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WozniczkaNatkaniec 2.90/Wozniczka 1.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.4%
Wozniczka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wozniczka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—911481M. Wozniczka—11511113
LJul 11 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—471191M. Wozniczka—11114113
LJul 10 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—1261161M. Wozniczka—101113113
LJul 4 · 24:45M. Natkaniec—811231M. Wozniczka—11411113
WJul 3 · 18:45M. Natkaniec—1011714123M. Wozniczka—1291112102
WJun 13 · 01:10M. Natkaniec—31111123M. Wozniczka—1188101
LJun 12 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—91111892M. Wozniczka—117411113
LApr 24 · 21:10M. Natkaniec—88111362M. Wozniczka—1111411113
LApr 24 · 16:50M. Natkaniec—7811101M. Wozniczka—11117123
WMar 15 · 24:10M. Natkaniec—11511113M. Wozniczka—511921
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113WAug 28 · 18:25M. Natkaniec2.90111111113M. Wolny1.35139791LAug 28 · 16:50M. Natkaniec5.65125100J. Oracz1.091411123LAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka1.4311511113M. Natkaniec2.55911481
M. Wozniczka10
LSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862LSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482LAug 29 · 02:20M. Wozniczka2.486940J. Oracz1.461111113LAug 29 · 24:45M. Krutak1.901111123M. Wozniczka1.8096100LAug 28 · 23:10M. Wozniczka1.40911111092M. Wolny2.75117312113WAug 28 · 22:00M. Wozniczka2.3711411143O. Jedrzejowski1.528117121LAug 28 · 20:20M. Wozniczka2.659930J. Oracz1.401111113WAug 28 · 18:45M. Krutak1.8610870M. Wozniczka1.831211113WAug 28 · 18:00O. Jedrzejowski1.539111191M. Wozniczka2.3811613113WAug 28 · 16:00M. Wozniczka1.4311511113M. Natkaniec2.55911481
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
Sep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3.30C. Pawlik1.25—Sep 11 · 18:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—Sep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40C. Pawlik1.24—Sep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85O. Jedrzejowski1.34—Sep 12 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.03D. Pyrek1.65—Sep 12 · 24:45M. Natkaniec3.70J. Oracz1.21—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.45M. Wozniczka1.44—
M. Wozniczka
Sep 11 · 17:35M. Wozniczka2.60J. Oracz1.41—Sep 11 · 19:35M. Wozniczka1.96O. Jedrzejowski1.69—Sep 11 · 20:20M. Wozniczka1.44M. Natkaniec2.45—Sep 11 · 21:10M. Wozniczka1.56D. Pyrek2.18—Sep 11 · 22:50M. Wozniczka2.33C. Pawlik1.49—Sep 11 · 23:35M. Wozniczka2.60J. Oracz1.39—Sep 12 · 01:35M. Wozniczka1.96O. Jedrzejowski1.69—Sep 12 · 02:20M. Wozniczka1.44M. Natkaniec2.45—
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