TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113611
Played Sep 11Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.21
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116115––––
Michal Natkaniec
Away
3.70
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:33 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
117116115––––
H2H Jacek Oracz 28–7 Michal Natkaniec Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.21 (75%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-7 in 35
Oracz
Correct
gap of 21 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1583 vs Natkaniec 1294
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 289 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Natkaniec 20%
Oracz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Natkaniec 40%
Oracz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Natkaniec -3
Natkaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.21 / Natkaniec 3.70
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Oracz)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13113611
Oracz1.21
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 297 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 186 of 189
Up 1–0, closes it87% 241 of 276
Natkaniec3.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz9wins
AwayNatkaniec1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%8 of 8
AwayNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz8Natkaniec2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Oracz9Natkaniec1n = 10Oracz took 9 of 10
S3Oracz8Natkaniec2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Oracz3Natkaniec1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczNatkaniecO − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.628.7+10.9per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczNatkaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 905 vs 129 / 38071.9%34%651 / 905 vs 129 / 380Avg sets wonper match2.51.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.333.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.21/Natkaniec 3.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 21:10J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—4730
WAug 28 · 16:50J. Oracz—1411123M. Natkaniec—125100
WJul 25 · 24:45J. Oracz—11119123M. Natkaniec—3911101
LJul 24 · 18:45J. Oracz—91112492M. Natkaniec—1191011113
WJul 11 · 01:10J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—5750
WJul 10 · 19:10J. Oracz—1291611113M. Natkaniec—101118842
WJun 27 · 01:10J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—7530
WJun 26 · 19:10J. Oracz—1113113M. Natkaniec—71180
WJun 12 · 22:25J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—6950
WJun 12 · 20:00J. Oracz—101113113M. Natkaniec—1241151
J. Oracz10
LSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113WSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:35J. Oracz1.4991111113O. Jedrzejowski2.34115791WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471LSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291WSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 21:10A. Fomin2.7561090J. Oracz1.401112113WSep 5 · 20:20K. Gudzik2.60117581J. Oracz1.4281111113WSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113WAug 28 · 19:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3581151162M. Natkaniec2.90115118113
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