TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113607
Played Sep 11Finished
Cezary Pawlik
Home
1.34
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911117119––
Dawid Pyrek
Away
2.85
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:33 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
119911117119––
H2H Cezary Pawlik 17–5 Dawid Pyrek Dawid Pyrek has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1576 vs Pyrek 1381
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Pyrek 80%
Pyrek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 50% vs Pyrek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Pyrek +4
Pyrek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.34 / Pyrek 2.85
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13113607
Pawlik1.34
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 120 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it92% 70 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 94 of 116
Pyrek2.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 63 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik8wins
AwayPyrek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik85.7%6 of 7
AwayPyrek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik7Pyrek3n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S2Pawlik7Pyrek3n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Pawlik6Pyrek4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik6Pyrek1n = 7Pawlik took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikPyrekPawlik − PyrekBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.632.4+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikPyrekBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 478 vs 382 / 76858.4%49.7%279 / 478 vs 382 / 768Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.34/Pyrek 2.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.4%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 01:10C. Pawlik—81111113D. Pyrek—116981
WSep 4 · 19:10C. Pawlik—1211113D. Pyrek—10430
WAug 22 · 24:45C. Pawlik—1511113D. Pyrek—13980
LAug 21 · 18:45C. Pawlik—41541192D. Pyrek—1113112113
WAug 8 · 24:45C. Pawlik—11211113D. Pyrek—411661
WAug 7 · 18:45C. Pawlik—11119113D. Pyrek—771171
WAug 2 · 01:10C. Pawlik—1311113D. Pyrek—11640
WAug 1 · 19:10C. Pawlik—81111113D. Pyrek—116761
WMay 16 · 24:00C. Pawlik—113811113D. Pyrek—71111852
LMay 15 · 16:00C. Pawlik—127781D. Pyrek—101111113
C. Pawlik10
WSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482WSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182LSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113LSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 22:00K. Gudzik2.8569131172C. Pawlik1.361111115113WSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152WSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690
D. Pyrek10
WSep 11 · 18:25D. Pyrek2.43119711123O. Jedrzejowski1.45811118102WSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862WSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113LSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102LSep 4 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.60741381J. Oracz1.23111111113WSep 4 · 20:00M. Krutak1.7561090D. Pyrek1.951112113LSep 4 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.531211113D. Pyrek2.3810430
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