TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114371
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
2.45
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11761110121012––
Marcin Wozniczka
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Wozniczka to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
11761110121012––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 7–20 Marcin Wozniczka Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (63%)
Wozniczka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-20 in 27
Wozniczka
Correct
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1285 vs Wozniczka 1465
Wozniczka
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 0% vs Wozniczka 40%
Wozniczka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 20% vs Wozniczka 40%
Wozniczka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -5 · Wozniczka +2
Natkaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Wozniczka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wozniczka form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 2.45 / Wozniczka 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Wozniczka)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114371
Natkaniec2.45
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Wozniczka1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 40 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec2wins
AwayWozniczka8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWozniczka leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayWozniczka77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec1Wozniczka9n = 10Wozniczka took 9 of 10
S2Natkaniec6Wozniczka4n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S3Natkaniec5Wozniczka5n = 10split evenly
S4Natkaniec4Wozniczka6n = 10Wozniczka took 6 of 10
S5Natkaniec1Wozniczka3n = 4Wozniczka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecWozniczkaN − WBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.243.0−3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecWozniczkaBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 382 vs 197 / 34433.8%57.3%129 / 382 vs 197 / 344Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WozniczkaNatkaniec 2.45/Wozniczka 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.4%
Wozniczka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wozniczka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—911111262M. Wozniczka—1141310113
LAug 28 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—911481M. Wozniczka—11511113
LJul 11 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—471191M. Wozniczka—11114113
LJul 10 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—1261161M. Wozniczka—101113113
LJul 4 · 24:45M. Natkaniec—811231M. Wozniczka—11411113
WJul 3 · 18:45M. Natkaniec—1011714123M. Wozniczka—1291112102
WJun 13 · 01:10M. Natkaniec—31111123M. Wozniczka—1188101
LJun 12 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—91111892M. Wozniczka—117411113
LApr 24 · 21:10M. Natkaniec—88111362M. Wozniczka—1111411113
LApr 24 · 16:50M. Natkaniec—7811101M. Wozniczka—11117123
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 22:25M. Natkaniec2.7591111982M. Krutak1.40115911113LAug 28 · 21:10M. Natkaniec4.954730J. Oracz1.101111113WAug 28 · 20:00M. Krutak1.78771291M. Natkaniec1.91111110113
M. Wozniczka10
WSep 11 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski1.69711711112M. Wozniczka1.96115117133WSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113LSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862LSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482LAug 29 · 02:20M. Wozniczka2.486940J. Oracz1.461111113LAug 29 · 24:45M. Krutak1.901111123M. Wozniczka1.8096100WAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113LAug 28 · 23:10M. Wozniczka1.40911111092M. Wolny2.75117312113WAug 28 · 22:00M. Wozniczka2.3711411143O. Jedrzejowski1.528117121LAug 28 · 20:20M. Wozniczka2.659930J. Oracz1.401111113
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