TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115901
Played Sep 12Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
2.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411311711––––
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.32
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
47 points played in total.
Set by set
411311711––––
H2H Dawid Pyrek 5–18 Cezary Pawlik Dawid Pyrek has won 5 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Pawlik beat Pyrek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (69%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-18 in 23
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 13 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1354 vs Pawlik 1563
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 20% vs Pawlik 60%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 50% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -1 · Pawlik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (60%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.95 / Pawlik 1.32
Signal prob.27% / 74%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13115901
Pyrek2.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 63 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Pawlik1.32
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 120 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it92% 70 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 94 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek1wins
AwayPawlik9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrek33.3%1 of 3
AwayPawlik100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S2Pyrek3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Pyrek3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Pyrek0Pawlik7n = 7Pawlik took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekPawlikPyrek − PawlikBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.739.4−7.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 773 vs 283 / 48449.6%58.5%383 / 773 vs 283 / 484Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPyrek 2.95/Pawlik 1.32
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 19:10D. Pyrek—911791C. Pawlik—11911113
LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek—116981C. Pawlik—81111113
LSep 4 · 19:10D. Pyrek—10430C. Pawlik—1211113
LAug 22 · 24:45D. Pyrek—13980C. Pawlik—1511113
WAug 21 · 18:45D. Pyrek—1113112113C. Pawlik—41541192
LAug 8 · 24:45D. Pyrek—411661C. Pawlik—11211113
LAug 7 · 18:45D. Pyrek—771171C. Pawlik—11119113
LAug 2 · 01:10D. Pyrek—11640C. Pawlik—1311113
LAug 1 · 19:10D. Pyrek—116761C. Pawlik—81111113
LMay 16 · 24:00D. Pyrek—71111852C. Pawlik—113811113
D. Pyrek10
LSep 12 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.901277111M. Natkaniec1.80101111133WSep 11 · 22:25D. Pyrek2.55118119113J. Oracz1.4251161192LSep 11 · 21:10D. Pyrek2.189811101M. Wozniczka1.5611117123LSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071LSep 11 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.3411911113D. Pyrek2.85911791WSep 11 · 18:25D. Pyrek2.43119711123O. Jedrzejowski1.45811118102WSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862WSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113
C. Pawlik10
LSep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.691191110113C. Pawlik1.9771171282LSep 12 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.651191371O. Jedrzejowski2.0561115113WSep 11 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.491111113M. Wozniczka2.333530WSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113LSep 11 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.609119111O. Jedrzejowski2.1011911133WSep 11 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.3411911113D. Pyrek2.85911791WSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482WSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pyrek
Nothing scheduled
C. Pawlik1 of 1 neutral
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