TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115047
Played Sep 12Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12107117111113––
Michal Natkaniec
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeDawid Pyrek to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
12107117111113––
H2H Dawid Pyrek 6–5 Michal Natkaniec Michal Natkaniec has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Pyrek beat Natkaniec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Natkaniec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1369 vs Natkaniec 1294
Pyrek
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 40% vs Natkaniec 20%
Pyrek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 50% vs Natkaniec 20%
Pyrek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek +1 · Natkaniec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Natkaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Natkaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 1.90 / Natkaniec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Natkaniec)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13115047
Pyrek1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 63 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Natkaniec1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 11 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek5wins
AwayNatkaniec5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrek25%1 of 4
AwayNatkaniec33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek4Natkaniec6n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S2Pyrek7Natkaniec3n = 10Pyrek took 7 of 10
S3Pyrek7Natkaniec3n = 10Pyrek took 7 of 10
S4Pyrek3Natkaniec7n = 10Natkaniec took 7 of 10
S5Pyrek3Natkaniec4n = 7Natkaniec took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekNatkaniecP − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.644.2−1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekNatkaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 772 vs 130 / 38549.6%33.8%383 / 772 vs 130 / 385Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.433.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NatkaniecPyrek 1.90/Natkaniec 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Natkaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Natkaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:00D. Pyrek—511117133M. Natkaniec—118711112
WJul 10 · 21:10D. Pyrek—1111115113M. Natkaniec—13471182
WJul 10 · 16:50D. Pyrek—101211113M. Natkaniec—1210961
LDec 26 · 22:10D. Pyrek—111011482M. Natkaniec—212711113
LDec 26 · 17:50D. Pyrek—11119842M. Natkaniec—791111113
LJun 22 · 24:00D. Pyrek—51411692M. Natkaniec—1112811113
WJun 21 · 16:00D. Pyrek—71111123M. Natkaniec—1185101
LJun 7 · 02:00D. Pyrek—1061141M. Natkaniec—12114113
WJun 6 · 16:25D. Pyrek—111176113M. Natkaniec—89111172
LMay 29 · 24:45D. Pyrek—11511182M. Natkaniec—911119113
D. Pyrek10
WSep 11 · 22:25D. Pyrek2.55118119113J. Oracz1.4251161192LSep 11 · 21:10D. Pyrek2.189811101M. Wozniczka1.5611117123LSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071LSep 11 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.3411911113D. Pyrek2.85911791WSep 11 · 18:25D. Pyrek2.43119711123O. Jedrzejowski1.45811118102WSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862WSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113LSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113
M. Natkaniec10
WSep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.751111113O. Jedrzejowski1.374470LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123LSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113
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