TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114782
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114114117––––
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Away
1.37
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Natkaniec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
114114117––––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 3–4 Oskar Jedrzejowski Michal Natkaniec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Jedrzejowski beat Natkaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:16What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (67%)
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1274 vs Jedrzejowski 1394
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 0% vs Jedrzejowski 60%
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 10% vs Jedrzejowski 30%
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -5 · Jedrzejowski +2
Natkaniec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Jedrzejowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 2.75 / Jedrzejowski 1.37
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Jedrzejowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114782
Natkaniec2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Jedrzejowski1.37
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 72 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNatkaniec3wins
AwayJedrzejowski4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderJedrzejowski leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniec66.7%2 of 3
AwayJedrzejowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec3Jedrzejowski4n = 7Jedrzejowski took 4 of 7
S2Natkaniec2Jedrzejowski5n = 7Jedrzejowski took 5 of 7
S3Natkaniec2Jedrzejowski5n = 7Jedrzejowski took 5 of 7
S4Natkaniec1Jedrzejowski4n = 5Jedrzejowski took 4 of 5
S5Natkaniec3Jedrzejowski0n = 3Natkaniec took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricNatkaniecJedrzejowskiN − JBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.441.0−5.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecJedrzejowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 384 vs 120 / 21533.6%55.8%129 / 384 vs 120 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejowskiNatkaniec 2.75/Jedrzejowski 1.37
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Jedrzejowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Natkaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec33146761O. Jedrzejowski45121111113
WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec46731312113O. Jedrzejowski501111111072
WAug 28 · 19:10M. Natkaniec46115118113O. Jedrzejowski4181151162
LJul 4 · 02:20M. Natkaniec29411681O. Jedrzejowski4011711113
WJul 3 · 20:20M. Natkaniec48111178113O. Jedrzejowski4487111172
LApr 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2468100O. Jedrzejowski341111123
LApr 18 · 20:20M. Natkaniec225980O. Jedrzejowski331111113
M. Natkaniec10
WSep 12 · 02:20M. Natkaniec2.501111113M. Wozniczka1.479880LSep 12 · 24:45J. Oracz1.2111119113M. Natkaniec3.70831151WSep 12 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.901277111M. Natkaniec1.80101111133LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123LSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113
O. Jedrzejowski10
WSep 12 · 23:35K. Malcher2.753260O. Jedrzejowski1.361111113WSep 12 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.6191115372O. Jedrzejowski2.101171311113LSep 12 · 21:10M. Wolny2.35512117113O. Jedrzejowski1.48111071162LSep 12 · 20:20A. Zmijewski1.831112118113O. Jedrzejowski1.83131021142LSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572LSep 12 · 17:35K. Malcher2.7511117113O. Jedrzejowski1.35691191WSep 12 · 16:50M. Wolny2.353860O. Jedrzejowski1.481111113LSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:45D. Pyrek2.3511814113O. Jedrzejowski1.537111281WSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Natkaniec
Nothing scheduled
O. Jedrzejowski
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