TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115896
Played Sep 12Finished
Michal Natkaniec
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118118––––
Marcin Wozniczka
Away
1.47
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:19 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Wozniczka to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
119118118––––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 7–21 Marcin Wozniczka Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Wozniczka beat Natkaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Wozniczka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-21 in 28
Wozniczka
Wrong
gap of 14 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1305 vs Wozniczka 1466
Wozniczka
Wrong
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 40% vs Wozniczka 60%
Wozniczka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 20% vs Wozniczka 40%
Wozniczka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec -1 · Wozniczka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Wozniczka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 2.50 / Wozniczka 1.47
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Wozniczka)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13115896
Natkaniec2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Wozniczka1.47
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 40 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec2wins
AwayWozniczka8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWozniczka leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWozniczka75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec2Wozniczka8n = 10Wozniczka took 8 of 10
S2Natkaniec6Wozniczka4n = 10Natkaniec took 6 of 10
S3Natkaniec4Wozniczka6n = 10Wozniczka took 6 of 10
S4Natkaniec4Wozniczka6n = 10Wozniczka took 6 of 10
S5Natkaniec1Wozniczka3n = 4Wozniczka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecWozniczkaN − WBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.343.1−3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecWozniczkaBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 387 vs 199 / 34833.9%57.2%131 / 387 vs 199 / 348Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WozniczkaNatkaniec 2.50/Wozniczka 1.47
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.4%
Wozniczka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Natkaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec—11610101M. Wozniczka—71112123
LAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—911111262M. Wozniczka—1141310113
LAug 28 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—911481M. Wozniczka—11511113
LJul 11 · 24:00M. Natkaniec—471191M. Wozniczka—11114113
LJul 10 · 16:00M. Natkaniec—1261161M. Wozniczka—101113113
LJul 4 · 24:45M. Natkaniec—811231M. Wozniczka—11411113
WJul 3 · 18:45M. Natkaniec—1011714123M. Wozniczka—1291112102
WJun 13 · 01:10M. Natkaniec—31111123M. Wozniczka—1188101
LJun 12 · 19:10M. Natkaniec—91111892M. Wozniczka—117411113
LApr 24 · 21:10M. Natkaniec—88111362M. Wozniczka—1111411113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 12 · 24:45J. Oracz1.2111119113M. Natkaniec3.70831151WSep 12 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.901277111M. Natkaniec1.80101111133WSep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.751111113O. Jedrzejowski1.374470LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123LSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113
M. Wozniczka10
LSep 12 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski1.691111113M. Wozniczka1.966670LSep 11 · 23:35J. Oracz1.451111113M. Wozniczka2.504480LSep 11 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.491111113M. Wozniczka2.333530WSep 11 · 21:10D. Pyrek2.189811101M. Wozniczka1.5611117123WSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123WSep 11 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski1.69711711112M. Wozniczka1.96115117133WSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113LSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862LSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482LAug 29 · 02:20M. Wozniczka2.486940J. Oracz1.461111113
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