TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114779
Played Sep 11Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114114118––––
Marcin Wozniczka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:13 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
114114118––––
H2H Jacek Oracz 23–18 Marcin Wozniczka Marcin Wozniczka has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Wozniczka beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Oracz
Correct
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1556 vs Wozniczka 1477
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Wozniczka 80%
Wozniczka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 50% vs Wozniczka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Wozniczka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wozniczka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.45 / Wozniczka 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Oracz)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13114779
Oracz1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 297 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 186 of 189
Up 1–0, closes it87% 241 of 276
Wozniczka2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 28 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwayWozniczka5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz62.5%5 of 8
AwayWozniczkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz8Wozniczka2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Oracz5Wozniczka5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz4Wozniczka6n = 10Wozniczka took 6 of 10
S4Oracz4Wozniczka2n = 6Oracz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczWozniczkaO − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.333.0+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczWozniczkaBasisWin rate · lifetime654 / 910 vs 199 / 34871.9%57.2%654 / 910 vs 199 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.45/Wozniczka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 23:35J. Oracz—1111113M. Wozniczka—4480
LSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz—118881M. Wozniczka—41111113
WAug 29 · 02:20J. Oracz—1111113M. Wozniczka—6940
WAug 28 · 20:20J. Oracz—1111113M. Wozniczka—9930
LAug 21 · 22:50J. Oracz—10670M. Wozniczka—1211113
WAug 21 · 15:10J. Oracz—11117113M. Wozniczka—581131
LJul 17 · 21:35J. Oracz—711101182M. Wozniczka—117128113
LJul 17 · 15:35J. Oracz—11981142M. Wozniczka—811119113
LJul 10 · 22:00J. Oracz—117761M. Wozniczka—61111113
WJul 10 · 18:00J. Oracz—13911123M. Wozniczka—11116101
J. Oracz10
LSep 11 · 22:25D. Pyrek2.55118119113J. Oracz1.4251161192LSep 11 · 21:35J. Oracz1.494111081O. Jedrzejowski2.3411912113WSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071WSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113WSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:35J. Oracz1.4991111113O. Jedrzejowski2.34115791WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471LSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291
M. Wozniczka10
LSep 11 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.491111113M. Wozniczka2.333530WSep 11 · 21:10D. Pyrek2.189811101M. Wozniczka1.5611117123WSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123WSep 11 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski1.69711711112M. Wozniczka1.96115117133WSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113LSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862LSep 11 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.49791111113M. Wozniczka2.3311119482LAug 29 · 02:20M. Wozniczka2.486940J. Oracz1.461111113LAug 29 · 24:45M. Krutak1.901111123M. Wozniczka1.8096100WAug 29 · 24:00M. Natkaniec2.90911111262M. Wozniczka1.351141310113
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