TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114789
Played Sep 11Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
2.55
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811116911119
Jacek Oracz
Away
1.42
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:17 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
115811116911119
H2H Dawid Pyrek 7–26 Jacek Oracz Dawid Pyrek has won 7 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Oracz beat Pyrek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (64%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-26 in 33
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 19 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1352 vs Oracz 1574
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 222 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 50% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -3 · Oracz -1
Pyrek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (60%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.55 / Oracz 1.42
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114789
Pyrek2.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 63 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Oracz1.42
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 297 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 186 of 189
Up 1–0, closes it87% 241 of 276
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek2wins
AwayOracz8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Pyrek4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Pyrek3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Pyrek2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekOraczP − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.239.7−8.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 771 vs 653 / 90849.6%71.9%382 / 771 vs 653 / 908Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczPyrek 2.55/Oracz 1.42
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.6%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pyrek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:00D. Pyrek—6121071J. Oracz—111012113
LSep 4 · 21:10D. Pyrek—741381J. Oracz—111111113
LSep 4 · 16:50D. Pyrek—51181122J. Oracz—118114113
LAug 21 · 22:00D. Pyrek—5711111J. Oracz—11116133
WAug 21 · 18:00D. Pyrek—81112113J. Oracz—1191061
LAug 7 · 22:00D. Pyrek—8740J. Oracz—1111113
LAug 7 · 18:00D. Pyrek—69110J. Oracz—1111133
LJul 10 · 22:50D. Pyrek—10640J. Oracz—1211113
LJul 10 · 15:10D. Pyrek—117511J. Oracz—61111113
WMay 15 · 22:00D. Pyrek—111155113J. Oracz—69111192
D. Pyrek10
LSep 11 · 21:10D. Pyrek2.189811101M. Wozniczka1.5611117123LSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071LSep 11 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.3411911113D. Pyrek2.85911791WSep 11 · 18:25D. Pyrek2.43119711123O. Jedrzejowski1.45811118102WSep 11 · 16:50D. Pyrek2.15611511113M. Wozniczka1.6011311862WSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113LSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102
J. Oracz10
LSep 11 · 21:35J. Oracz1.494111081O. Jedrzejowski2.3411912113WSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071WSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113WSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:35J. Oracz1.4991111113O. Jedrzejowski2.34115791WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471LSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291WSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113
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