TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115902
Played Sep 12Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.21
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118113911115––
Michal Natkaniec
Away
3.70
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118113911115––
H2H Jacek Oracz 29–7 Michal Natkaniec Michal Natkaniec has won 7 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Natkaniec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.21 (75%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-7 in 36
Oracz
Correct
gap of 22 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1568 vs Natkaniec 1309
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Natkaniec 40%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Natkaniec 30%
Oracz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Natkaniec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Natkaniec form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.21 / Natkaniec 3.70
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Oracz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13115902
Oracz1.21
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 297 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 186 of 189
Up 1–0, closes it87% 241 of 276
Natkaniec3.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz9wins
AwayNatkaniec1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%9 of 9
AwayNatkaniecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz9Natkaniec1n = 10Oracz took 9 of 10
S2Oracz9Natkaniec1n = 10Oracz took 9 of 10
S3Oracz8Natkaniec2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Oracz2Natkaniec1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczNatkaniecO − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.427.3+11.1per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczNatkaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime654 / 910 vs 131 / 38671.9%33.9%654 / 910 vs 131 / 386Avg sets wonper match2.51.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.333.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.21/Natkaniec 3.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—7650
WAug 28 · 21:10J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—4730
WAug 28 · 16:50J. Oracz—1411123M. Natkaniec—125100
WJul 25 · 24:45J. Oracz—11119123M. Natkaniec—3911101
LJul 24 · 18:45J. Oracz—91112492M. Natkaniec—1191011113
WJul 11 · 01:10J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—5750
WJul 10 · 19:10J. Oracz—1291611113M. Natkaniec—101118842
WJun 27 · 01:10J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—7530
WJun 26 · 19:10J. Oracz—1113113M. Natkaniec—71180
WJun 12 · 22:25J. Oracz—1111113M. Natkaniec—6950
J. Oracz10
WSep 11 · 23:35J. Oracz1.451111113M. Wozniczka2.504480LSep 11 · 22:25D. Pyrek2.55118119113J. Oracz1.4251161192LSep 11 · 21:35J. Oracz1.494111081O. Jedrzejowski2.3411912113WSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071WSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113WSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:35J. Oracz1.4991111113O. Jedrzejowski2.34115791WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471
M. Natkaniec10
WSep 12 · 24:00D. Pyrek1.901277111M. Natkaniec1.80101111133WSep 11 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.751111113O. Jedrzejowski1.374470LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.40911651C. Pawlik1.2411711113LSep 11 · 20:20M. Natkaniec2.4511610101M. Wozniczka1.4471112123LSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.2511142123M. Natkaniec3.3061211101LSep 11 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.70146761O. Jedrzejowski1.40121111113LSep 11 · 16:00M. Natkaniec1.85118711112D. Pyrek1.80511117133LAug 29 · 02:45M. Natkaniec2.463890M. Wolny1.461111113WAug 29 · 01:10M. Natkaniec3.30731312113O. Jedrzejowski1.271111111072
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