TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115898
Played Sep 12Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.69
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1179111171012118
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.97
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
1179111171012118
H2H Jacek Oracz 31–30 Cezary Pawlik Cezary Pawlik has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Oracz beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:22What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-30 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1572 vs Pawlik 1570
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Pawlik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Pawlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.69 / Pawlik 1.97
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13115898
Oracz1.69
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 297 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 186 of 189
Up 1–0, closes it87% 241 of 276
Pawlik1.97
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwayPawlik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%3 of 3
AwayPawlik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S2Oracz7Pawlik3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Oracz5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Oracz3Pawlik6n = 9Pawlik took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczPawlikO − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.5+0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 911 vs 284 / 48571.9%58.6%655 / 911 vs 284 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.69/Pawlik 1.97
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:25J. Oracz471111410113C. Pawlik4678111282
WSep 5 · 22:50J. Oracz331111113C. Pawlik217590
LSep 5 · 15:10J. Oracz39912991C. Pawlik43111011113
LSep 4 · 22:50J. Oracz5191191662C. Pawlik531161114113
WSep 4 · 15:10J. Oracz43101111113C. Pawlik36128881
LAug 22 · 02:00J. Oracz29711381C. Pawlik3811511113
LAug 21 · 16:25J. Oracz4181310101C. Pawlik46111112123
WAug 15 · 24:45J. Oracz4111811113C. Pawlik37811991
LAug 14 · 18:45J. Oracz409911111C. Pawlik4211117133
LAug 8 · 02:00J. Oracz421481191C. Pawlik4316115113
J. Oracz10
WSep 12 · 24:45J. Oracz1.2111119113M. Natkaniec3.70831151WSep 11 · 23:35J. Oracz1.451111113M. Wozniczka2.504480LSep 11 · 22:25D. Pyrek2.55118119113J. Oracz1.4251161192LSep 11 · 21:35J. Oracz1.494111081O. Jedrzejowski2.3411912113WSep 11 · 20:00J. Oracz1.27111012113D. Pyrek3.206121071WSep 11 · 18:45J. Oracz1.211111113M. Natkaniec3.707650LSep 11 · 17:35J. Oracz1.41118881M. Wozniczka2.6041111113WSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113WSep 11 · 15:35J. Oracz1.4991111113O. Jedrzejowski2.34115791WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113
C. Pawlik10
WSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113WSep 13 · 01:10M. Wolny2.859890C. Pawlik1.341111113LSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.6191115372O. Jedrzejowski2.101171311113LSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113LSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113LSep 11 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0478111282J. Oracz1.641111410113
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