TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120852
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Wolny
Home
2.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.34
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
911811911––––
H2H Michal Wolny 5–30 Cezary Pawlik Michal Wolny has won 5 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Pawlik beat Wolny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-30 in 35
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 25 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wolny 1309 vs Pawlik 1508
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wolny 20% vs Pawlik 40%
Pawlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wolny 30% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wolny -2 · Pawlik -3
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWolny 2.85 / Pawlik 1.34
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Pawlik)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13120852
Wolny2.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 37 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Pawlik1.34
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 122 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 95 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWolny1wins
AwayPawlik9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWolny33.3%1 of 3
AwayPawlik100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wolny3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S2Wolny0Pawlik10n = 10Pawlik took 10 of 10
S3Wolny3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Wolny0Pawlik4n = 4Pawlik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricWolnyPawlikW − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.138.4−11.3per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWolnyPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 564 vs 287 / 49447.3%58.1%267 / 564 vs 287 / 494Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikWolny 2.85/Pawlik 1.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.3%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 19:10M. Wolny116140C. Pawlik331111113
LAug 7 · 21:35M. Wolny48128126102C. Pawlik5410111011123
WAug 7 · 15:35M. Wolny49115139113C. Pawlik49811111182
LAug 1 · 01:10M. Wolny32771171C. Pawlik3811115113
LJul 31 · 19:10M. Wolny184950C. Pawlik331111113
LJul 25 · 24:25M. Wolny126330C. Pawlik331111113
LJul 24 · 20:45M. Wolny258980C. Pawlik331111113
LJul 18 · 01:10M. Wolny195770C. Pawlik331111113
LJul 17 · 19:10M. Wolny301261021C. Pawlik44101112113
LMay 16 · 02:45M. Wolny2710890C. Pawlik341211113
M. Wolny10
LSep 13 · 24:00M. Wolny2.5059120A. Zmijewski1.461111143LSep 12 · 22:25M. Wolny1.75611871K. Malcher1.9511911113WSep 12 · 21:10M. Wolny2.35512117113O. Jedrzejowski1.48111071162LSep 12 · 20:00K. Malcher2.101111113M. Wolny1.606990LSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 16:50M. Wolny2.353860O. Jedrzejowski1.481111113WSep 12 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.50711911102M. Wolny2.40115113123LSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:35M. Wolny1.3381111113A. Barton3.10119861
C. Pawlik10
WSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113LSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.6191115372O. Jedrzejowski2.101171311113LSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113LSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113WSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.691191110113C. Pawlik1.9771171282
Upcoming Matches
M. Wolny
C. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
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