TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119970
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Wolny
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5119111214––––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.46
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
5119111214––––
H2H Michal Wolny 1–1 Artur Zmijewski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Wolny beat Zmijewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wolny 1318 vs Zmijewski 1462
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wolny 20% vs Zmijewski 80%
Zmijewski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wolny 30% vs Zmijewski 60%
Zmijewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wolny -1 · Zmijewski +3
Zmijewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWolny 2.50 / Zmijewski 1.46
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Zmijewski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119970
Wolny2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 39 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Zmijewski1.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 54 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeWolny1wins
AwayZmijewski1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricWolnyZmijewskiW − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match31.040.5−9.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWolnyZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 563 vs 75 / 12747.4%59.1%267 / 563 vs 75 / 127Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiWolny 2.50/Zmijewski 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 12 · 16:00M. Wolny42115113123A. Zmijewski48711911102
LSep 7 · 08:45M. Wolny208480A. Zmijewski331111113
M. Wolny10
LSep 12 · 22:25M. Wolny1.75611871K. Malcher1.9511911113WSep 12 · 21:10M. Wolny2.35512117113O. Jedrzejowski1.48111071162LSep 12 · 20:00K. Malcher2.101111113M. Wolny1.606990LSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 16:50M. Wolny2.353860O. Jedrzejowski1.481111113WSep 12 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.50711911102M. Wolny2.40115113123LSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:35M. Wolny1.3381111113A. Barton3.10119861LSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102WSep 12 · 20:20A. Zmijewski1.831112118113O. Jedrzejowski1.83131021142LSep 12 · 18:45K. Malcher2.9011114113A. Zmijewski1.32971191WSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113WSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052LSep 12 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.50711911102M. Wolny2.40115113123LSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.9111135113A. Zmijewski1.809111151WSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480
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