TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120850
Played Sep 13Finished
Krzysztof Malcher
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411711––––
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.24
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
711411711––––
H2H Krzysztof Malcher 1–0 Cezary Pawlik Cezary Pawlik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Malcher beat Pawlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (73%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Malcher 1322 vs Pawlik 1508
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malcher 40% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malcher 50% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Malcher -2 · Pawlik -3
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (81%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalcher 3.40 / Pawlik 1.24
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13120850
Malcher3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 28 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Pawlik1.24
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 122 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 95 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMalcher1wins
AwayPawlik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMalcher leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMalcherPawlikM − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match52.046.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalcherPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime35 / 94 vs 287 / 49437.2%58.1%35 / 94 vs 287 / 494Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikMalcher 3.40/Pawlik 1.24
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.1%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 12 · 16:25K. Malcher521110911113C. Pawlik4661211892
K. Malcher10
LSep 13 · 24:45K. Malcher2.907930A. Zmijewski1.321111113LSep 12 · 23:35K. Malcher2.753260O. Jedrzejowski1.361111113WSep 12 · 22:25M. Wolny1.75611871K. Malcher1.9511911113LSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163WSep 12 · 20:00K. Malcher2.101111113M. Wolny1.606990WSep 12 · 18:45K. Malcher2.9011114113A. Zmijewski1.32971191WSep 12 · 17:35K. Malcher2.7511117113O. Jedrzejowski1.35691191WSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113LSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher2.801111610102A. Fomin1.34551112123LAug 30 · 02:10J. Michalik2.001211113K. Malcher1.7310870
C. Pawlik10
WSep 13 · 01:10M. Wolny2.859890C. Pawlik1.341111113LSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.6191115372O. Jedrzejowski2.101171311113LSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113LSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113WSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.691191110113C. Pawlik1.9771171282
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