TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120848
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Wolny
Home
2.05
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
611711611––––
H2H Michal Wolny 20–12 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Fomin beat Wolny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-12 in 32
Wolny
Wrong
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wolny 1302 vs Fomin 1521
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 219 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wolny 20% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wolny 20% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wolny -3 · Fomin +2
Wolny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wolny form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWolny 2.05 / Fomin 1.65
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Fomin)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13120848
Wolny2.05
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 37 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Fomin1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 274 of 378
Up 2–0, closes it98% 154 of 157
Up 1–0, closes it90% 212 of 237
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWolny2wins
AwayFomin8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWolny66.7%2 of 3
AwayFomin100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wolny3Fomin7n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S2Wolny6Fomin4n = 10Wolny took 6 of 10
S3Wolny2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S4Wolny3Fomin4n = 7Fomin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWolnyFominW − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.539.0−4.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWolnyFominBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 565 vs 527 / 90147.3%58.5%267 / 565 vs 527 / 901Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominWolny 2.05/Fomin 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny29911631A. Fomin4111811113
LAug 31 · 07:30M. Wolny42101251142A. Fomin531210119113
LAug 3 · 05:10M. Wolny207850A. Fomin331111113
LMay 4 · 07:35M. Wolny361186111A. Fomin4271111133
LApr 27 · 08:20M. Wolny32612771A. Fomin43111011113
LApr 20 · 07:35M. Wolny207490A. Fomin331111113
WApr 13 · 07:35M. Wolny4313811113A. Fomin321111641
LMar 30 · 07:35M. Wolny351311921A. Fomin4115411113
LMar 16 · 08:35M. Wolny549111311102A. Fomin50118154123
WMar 9 · 09:45M. Wolny341111123A. Fomin2248100
M. Wolny10
LSep 13 · 01:10M. Wolny2.859890C. Pawlik1.341111113LSep 13 · 24:00M. Wolny2.5059120A. Zmijewski1.461111143LSep 12 · 22:25M. Wolny1.75611871K. Malcher1.9511911113WSep 12 · 21:10M. Wolny2.35512117113O. Jedrzejowski1.48111071162LSep 12 · 20:00K. Malcher2.101111113M. Wolny1.606990LSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 16:50M. Wolny2.353860O. Jedrzejowski1.481111113WSep 12 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.50711911102M. Wolny2.40115113123LSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480
A. Fomin10
WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572WSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052WSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher2.801111610102A. Fomin1.34551112123WSep 10 · 02:35A. Barton8.509121141A. Fomin1.0511146113
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