TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130033
Played Sep 16Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
118119116––––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 3–2 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baran beat Karpiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:50What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1301 vs Baran 1348
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 80% vs Baran 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 40% vs Baran 60%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +3 · Baran +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.85 / Baran 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13130033
Karpiuk1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Baran1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwayBaran2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiukn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBaran50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk1Baran4n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
S2Karpiuk5Baran0n = 5Karpiuk took 5 of 5
S3Karpiuk3Baran2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S4Karpiuk3Baran2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKarpiukBaranK − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.436.8+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 290 vs 70 / 12943.8%54.3%127 / 290 vs 70 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranKarpiuk 1.85/Baran 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk34911771M. Baran3811511113
LAug 9 · 21:20M. Karpiuk4361111872M. Baran46116711113
WAug 9 · 15:25M. Karpiuk44111111113M. Baran35138951
WJul 21 · 01:50M. Karpiuk4211119113M. Baran32961161
WJul 20 · 20:05M. Karpiuk3961111113M. Baran33117691
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113LSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561WSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113LSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113
M. Baran10
LSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342WSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.