TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130032
Played Sep 16Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
2.27
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911911611––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 66.4% is still 66.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
66.4%
66.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
119911911611––
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 2–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Kazimierz Rybak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1066 vs Karpiuk 1305
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 20% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 20% vs Karpiuk 50%
Karpiuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -1 · Karpiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 2.27 / Karpiuk 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Karpiuk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13130032
Rybak2.27
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 53 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back9% 14 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 107
Karpiuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 56 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRybak2wins
AwayKarpiuk4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKarpiuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak2Karpiuk4n = 6Karpiuk took 4 of 6
S2Rybak3Karpiuk3n = 6split evenly
S3Rybak1Karpiuk5n = 6Karpiuk took 5 of 6
S4Rybak1Karpiuk2n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricRybakKarpiukR − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match32.538.7−6.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 502 vs 128 / 29223.5%43.8%118 / 502 vs 128 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukRybak 2.27/Karpiuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.1%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 23:45K. Rybak33811771M. Karpiuk4111811113
LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak225890M. Karpiuk331111113
WJul 17 · 01:45K. Rybak611691213113M. Karpiuk591411141192
LJul 16 · 16:15K. Rybak136160M. Karpiuk331111113
WJul 12 · 01:25K. Rybak331111113M. Karpiuk239680
LJul 11 · 19:20K. Rybak33812761M. Karpiuk43111011113
K. Rybak10
LSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113WSep 14 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.07123981K. Rybak7.50101111113LSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.008750A. Kubiak1.111111113LSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960LSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561WSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113LSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771
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