TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130043
Played Sep 16Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
1.71
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191210711611811
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1191210711611811
H2H Jakub Skorupa 3–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Jakub Skorupa has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skorupa beat Karpiuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:50What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Skorupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1458 vs Karpiuk 1285
Skorupa
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 80% vs Karpiuk 60%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 60% vs Karpiuk 30%
Skorupa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa +2 · Karpiuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 1.71 / Karpiuk 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Skorupa)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13130043
Skorupa1.71
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 148 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it76% 97 of 128
Karpiuk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSkorupa3wins
AwayKarpiuk4wins
5 of 7 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 4–3, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa33.3%1 of 3
AwayKarpiuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa3Karpiuk4n = 7Karpiuk took 4 of 7
S2Skorupa5Karpiuk2n = 7Skorupa took 5 of 7
S3Skorupa2Karpiuk5n = 7Karpiuk took 5 of 7
S4Skorupa4Karpiuk2n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S5Skorupa2Karpiuk3n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSkorupaKarpiukS − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match44.344.7−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime315 / 650 vs 126 / 28948.5%43.6%315 / 650 vs 126 / 289Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaSkorupa 1.71/Karpiuk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.3%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa52911912113M. Karpiuk47117111082
LSep 1 · 24:50J. Skorupa4511813582M. Karpiuk539111111113
WAug 31 · 19:20J. Skorupa501011711113M. Karpiuk4612911772
WAug 31 · 01:25J. Skorupa381413113M. Karpiuk32121190
LAug 30 · 19:20J. Skorupa421411891M. Karpiuk4716911113
LJul 20 · 24:35J. Skorupa4211741192M. Karpiuk45411118113
LJul 19 · 18:30J. Skorupa41101151142M. Karpiuk43125114113
J. Skorupa10
WSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100WSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111LSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113WSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690WSep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.40111060J. Skorupa1.301312113WSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113LSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113LSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113
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