TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130034
Played Sep 16Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116311115116––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.81
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMarian Brunner to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
116311115116––
H2H Marian Brunner 0–1 Mateusz Karpiuk Marian Brunner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Karpiuk beat Brunner 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:50What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (50%)
Karpiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1270 vs Karpiuk 1301
Karpiuk
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 0% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 40% vs Karpiuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -5 · Karpiuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 1.83 / Karpiuk 1.81
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpiuk)+3.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13130034
Brunner1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 45 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Karpiuk1.81
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 56 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBrunner0wins
AwayKarpiuk1wins
Karpiuk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricBrunnerKarpiukB − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match19.033.0−14.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 569 vs 127 / 29049.6%43.8%282 / 569 vs 127 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukBrunner 1.83/Karpiuk 1.81
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner198650M. Karpiuk331111113
M. Brunner10
WSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik1.76611851M. Brunner1.9611311113WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113LSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113LSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960WSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113LSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113
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