TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136314
Played Sep 16Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611113811511––
Marian Brunner
Away
1.96
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMarian Brunner to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
611113811511––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 31–34 Marian Brunner Jerzy Michalik has won 31 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Michalik beat Brunner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:39What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (53%)
Michalik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-34 in 65
Brunner
Correct
gap of 3 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1385 vs Brunner 1301
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Brunner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Brunner 40%
Michalik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -2 · Brunner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brunner form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.76 / Brunner 1.96
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Michalik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13136314
Michalik1.76
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 135 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it75% 96 of 128
Brunner1.96
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 46 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik6wins
AwayBrunner4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik62.5%5 of 8
AwayBrunnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik8Brunner2n = 10Michalik took 8 of 10
S2Michalik6Brunner4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S3Michalik7Brunner3n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S4Michalik4Brunner3n = 7Michalik took 4 of 7
S5Michalik0Brunner3n = 3Brunner took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikBrunnerM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.4+2.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1167 vs 284 / 57147.1%49.7%550 / 1167 vs 284 / 571Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.76/Brunner 1.96
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 04:20J. Michalik30611851M. Brunner3611311113
WSep 15 · 18:45J. Michalik50151212113M. Brunner4513101481
WSep 8 · 18:45J. Michalik331111113M. Brunner248790
LAug 26 · 03:30J. Michalik38115101112M. Brunner45311128113
LAug 12 · 03:30J. Michalik4311511882M. Brunner43511511113
WAug 5 · 03:30J. Michalik341211113M. Brunner2810990
WJul 31 · 24:10J. Michalik4211911113M. Brunner31511691
LJul 30 · 20:30J. Michalik4411711782M. Brunner49911711113
WJul 29 · 24:45J. Michalik331111113M. Brunner279990
WJul 22 · 03:30J. Michalik3851111113M. Brunner36119881
J. Michalik10
LSep 16 · 03:05J. Michalik1.861181451J. Skorupa1.7891116113LSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113
M. Brunner10
WSep 16 · 03:30K. Rybak3.45611451M. Brunner1.2311711113WSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561LSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113LSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113LSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113
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