TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136316
Played Sep 16Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1198111416511––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.78
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
1198111416511––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 16–14 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Michalik beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (51%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1414 vs Skorupa 1422
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Skorupa 40%
Michalik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Skorupa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Skorupa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skorupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.86 / Skorupa 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skorupa)+2.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13136316
Michalik1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Skorupa1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 148 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it76% 97 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkorupa25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik6Skorupa4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Michalik7Skorupa3n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S3Michalik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Michalik8Skorupa2n = 10Michalik took 8 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikSkorupaM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.140.9+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1165 vs 315 / 65247.2%48.3%550 / 1165 vs 315 / 652Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaMichalik 1.86/Skorupa 1.78
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik3611113113J. Skorupa35971181
WAug 31 · 23:10J. Michalik4311912113J. Skorupa366111091
LAug 24 · 03:10J. Michalik381110891J. Skorupa4391211113
LAug 5 · 24:45J. Michalik52911111472J. Skorupa56119916113
WJul 22 · 21:45J. Michalik4361211143J. Skorupa4111108121
WJul 22 · 17:45J. Michalik4071111113J. Skorupa35117981
LJul 22 · 24:45J. Michalik4411581192J. Skorupa49911117113
WJul 15 · 02:20J. Michalik4211155113J. Skorupa397131181
WJul 8 · 23:20J. Michalik48111115113J. Skorupa40961781
WJul 8 · 17:20J. Michalik45121111113J. Skorupa35147681
J. Michalik10
LSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113LSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 16 · 02:20K. Rybak4.10615711113J. Skorupa1.17111311682LSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100WSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111LSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113WSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690WSep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.40111060J. Skorupa1.301312113
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