TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139187
Played Sep 16Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118511113111
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 81 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 63.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 3–5 Kacper Kwiatkowski Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1324 vs Kwiatkowski 1589
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 265 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 20% vs Kwiatkowski 100%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 30% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Kwiatkowski +5
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.10 / Kwiatkowski 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13139187
Lewczuk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 67 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 72
Kwiatkowski1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLewczuk3wins
AwayKwiatkowski5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayKwiatkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Kwiatkowski5n = 8Kwiatkowski took 5 of 8
S2Lewczuk5Kwiatkowski3n = 8Lewczuk took 5 of 8
S3Lewczuk3Kwiatkowski5n = 8Kwiatkowski took 5 of 8
S4Lewczuk2Kwiatkowski4n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLewczukKwiatkowskiL − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match33.434.6−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 958 vs 109 / 24451.3%44.7%491 / 958 vs 109 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiLewczuk 2.10/Kwiatkowski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 24 · 21:45M. Lewczuk22115421K. Kwiatkowski3851111113
LAug 24 · 17:45M. Lewczuk4481181162K. Kwiatkowski48117118113
LAug 19 · 23:20M. Lewczuk81520K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 19 · 17:20M. Lewczuk4181111113K. Kwiatkowski21113431
LAug 17 · 22:10M. Lewczuk336125101K. Kwiatkowski44111011123
LAug 17 · 19:40M. Lewczuk345811101K. Kwiatkowski3811114123
WAug 11 · 01:10M. Lewczuk521111118113K. Kwiatkowski3581131122
WAug 10 · 16:15M. Lewczuk331111113K. Kwiatkowski206950
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
Sep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.53M. Machelski2.38—Sep 16 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.67M. Baran2.10—Sep 16 · 21:45M. Lewczuk2.10K. Kwiatkowski1.67—Sep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.25A. Fomin1.57—Sep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.73M. Baran2.00—Sep 17 · 01:00M. Lewczuk1.53M. Machelski2.38—Sep 17 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.67J. Skorupa2.10—
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.44M. Baran2.63—Sep 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57M. Machelski2.25—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——
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