TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138969
Played Sep 16Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81110121315––––
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 69 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 58.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 17–8 Arkadiusz Skupinski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1344 vs Skupinski 1209
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Skupinski 20%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Skupinski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Skupinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.30 / Skupinski 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 27%
Edge (Lewczuk)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13138969
Lewczuk1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 171 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it96% 111 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it83% 130 of 156
Skupinski3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk6wins
AwaySkupinski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkupinski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Skupinski4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk5Skupinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Lewczuk7Skupinski3n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk5Skupinski4n = 9Lewczuk took 5 of 9
S5Lewczuk2Skupinski3n = 5Skupinski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukSkupinskiL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.740.2+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 957 vs 160 / 40851.3%39.2%491 / 957 vs 160 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.30/Skupinski 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.5%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skupinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk361411113A. Skupinski3012990
WSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk3911116113A. Skupinski30931171
WAug 19 · 19:40M. Lewczuk50811911113A. Skupinski4211311982
WJun 17 · 23:55M. Lewczuk49119117113A. Skupinski3951191132
WJun 17 · 17:55M. Lewczuk4411913113A. Skupinski409111191
LNov 4 · 03:00M. Lewczuk3812211582A. Skupinski501011711113
WSep 30 · 19:10M. Lewczuk3961111113A. Skupinski33119671
LSep 11 · 19:10M. Lewczuk4891111982A. Skupinski49118811113
LAug 14 · 03:05M. Lewczuk4211145121A. Skupinski4981611143
LAug 13 · 21:05M. Lewczuk4265111192A. Skupinski40111152113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590WSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113
A. Skupinski10
LSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113WSep 9 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.44411111352A. Skupinski2.63115915113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
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A. Skupinski
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