TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138929
Played Sep 16Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711411––––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:17 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 56.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 1–0 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:17What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1220 vs Baran 1323
Baran
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Baran 60%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 30% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski +1 · Baran -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 2.25 / Baran 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Baran)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13138929
Skupinski2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Baran1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 43 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkupinski1wins
AwayBaran0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSkupinski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkupinskiBaranS − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.041.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 412 vs 70 / 13139.1%53.4%161 / 412 vs 70 / 131Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranSkupinski 2.25/Baran 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 15:50A. Skupinski50111189113M. Baran4196111142
A. Skupinski10
WSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153WSep 9 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.44411111352A. Skupinski2.63115915113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113
M. Baran10
LSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342LSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960WSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113
Upcoming Matches
A. Skupinski
M. Baran
Sep 16 · 18:10M. Baran1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.20A. Fomin1.61—Sep 16 · 20:30M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 16 · 21:20M. Baran2.10J. Skorupa1.67—Sep 16 · 22:55M. Baran2.63K. Kwiatkowski1.44—Sep 17 · 24:10M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.20A. Fomin1.61—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Baran1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 17 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 17 · 16:35M. Baran—G. Mucha——
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