TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139189
Played Sep 16Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811119611511
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 74.2% is still 74.2%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
74.2%
74.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 74.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 1–10 Andriej Fomin Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Fomin
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1230 vs Fomin 1546
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 316 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Fomin 100%
Fomin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 40% vs Fomin 80%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski +1 · Fomin +5
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 3.50 / Fomin 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Fomin)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13139189
Skupinski3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Fomin1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 275 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it98% 155 of 158
Up 1–0, closes it90% 213 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkupinski1wins
AwayFomin9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFomin100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S2Skupinski4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S3Skupinski5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S4Skupinski3Fomin6n = 9Fomin took 6 of 9
S5Skupinski1Fomin4n = 5Fomin took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkupinskiFominS − FBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.745.9−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 409 vs 530 / 90439.4%58.6%161 / 409 vs 530 / 904Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominSkupinski 3.50/Fomin 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski398911111A. Fomin4211117133
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Skupinski47145116113A. Fomin51121181192
LJun 15 · 08:50A. Skupinski4231191182A. Fomin50118119113
LJun 8 · 05:35A. Skupinski4711917101A. Fomin51131115123
LMay 18 · 06:25A. Skupinski4111771152A. Fomin44511116113
LMar 23 · 07:45A. Skupinski40917681A. Fomin48111511113
LDec 22 · 07:25A. Skupinski4681111972A. Fomin49117911113
LOct 27 · 07:25A. Skupinski237790A. Fomin331111113
LOct 13 · 08:00A. Skupinski32511971A. Fomin4111811113
LOct 6 · 04:00A. Skupinski4058111152A. Fomin50111189113
A. Skupinski10
LSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113WSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113WSep 9 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.44411111352A. Skupinski2.63115915113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171
A. Fomin10
WSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113WSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113
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