TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131408
Played Sep 15Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91112101158111214
Andrii Lifanov
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 103 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Andrii Lifanov at 73.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 3–11 Andrii Lifanov Fedir Chashchin has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lifanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-11 in 14
Lifanov
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1439 vs Lifanov 1444
Lifanov
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 60% vs Lifanov 40%
Chashchin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 60% vs Lifanov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin +1 · Lifanov -3
Lifanov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Lifanov) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lifanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 3.00 / Lifanov 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Lifanov)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131408
Chashchin3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 17 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Lifanov1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 116 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it97% 62 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it83% 90 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin1wins
AwayLifanov9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLifanov leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin0%0 of 3
AwayLifanov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin3Lifanov7n = 10Lifanov took 7 of 10
S2Chashchin2Lifanov8n = 10Lifanov took 8 of 10
S3Chashchin2Lifanov8n = 10Lifanov took 8 of 10
S4Chashchin2Lifanov4n = 6Lifanov took 4 of 6
S5Chashchin1Lifanov2n = 3Lifanov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinLifanovC − LBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.540.3−4.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 193 vs 209 / 37651.3%55.6%99 / 193 vs 209 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovChashchin 3.00/Lifanov 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 12:35F. Chashchin381291071A. Lifanov44101112113
LJun 15 · 14:55F. Chashchin4176111162A. Lifanov47111186113
LJun 3 · 16:05F. Chashchin3911381162A. Lifanov42111118113
LMay 7 · 17:25F. Chashchin205780A. Lifanov331111113
LMay 2 · 08:55F. Chashchin2781090A. Lifanov341112113
WApr 23 · 18:35F. Chashchin5410111112103A. Lifanov4512471482
LMar 11 · 14:55F. Chashchin448111691A. Lifanov4411418113
LMar 3 · 19:35F. Chashchin381291071A. Lifanov44101112113
LFeb 23 · 16:05F. Chashchin249690A. Lifanov331111113
LFeb 18 · 18:35F. Chashchin30812100A. Lifanov371114123
F. Chashchin10
WSep 15 · 17:35F. Chashchin1.83111410113V. Hainiuk1.835121231WSep 15 · 15:05F. Chashchin3.4081111113A. Yakovenko1.30119481LSep 15 · 13:05F. Chashchin1.6110760I. Elfemov2.201211113WSep 7 · 18:35O. Korobov1.83117871F. Chashchin1.8371111113WSep 7 · 17:35F. Chashchin2.10661211113V. Hainiuk1.67111110692LSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650
A. Lifanov10
LSep 15 · 14:35V. Hainiuk3.001111133A. Lifanov1.3649110LSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942LSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840WSep 10 · 18:55A. Azarov3.255590A. Lifanov1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:25V. Sharpai1.6761111382A. Lifanov2.10119811113WSep 10 · 15:25D. Boltenkov2.1012119252A. Lifanov1.671071111113LSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112
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