TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088742
Played Sep 7Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113511911711––
Viktor Sharpai
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeViktor Sharpai to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Viktor Sharpai below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Viktor Sharpai at 65.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 2–5 Viktor Sharpai Fedir Chashchin has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Sharpai
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Sharpai
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1424 vs Sharpai 1388
Chashchin
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 60% vs Sharpai 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 70% vs Sharpai 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin +1 · Sharpai +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Sharpai) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sharpai form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 2.75 / Sharpai 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Sharpai)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13088742
Chashchin2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Sharpai1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 49 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 38 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChashchin2wins
AwaySharpai5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSharpai leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin66.7%2 of 3
AwaySharpai100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin3Sharpai4n = 7Sharpai took 4 of 7
S2Chashchin0Sharpai7n = 7Sharpai took 7 of 7
S3Chashchin3Sharpai4n = 7Sharpai took 4 of 7
S4Chashchin3Sharpai1n = 4Chashchin took 3 of 4
S5Chashchin1Sharpai2n = 3Sharpai took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricChashchinSharpaiC − SBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match32.337.9−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinSharpaiBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 188 vs 258 / 55151.1%46.8%96 / 188 vs 258 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SharpaiChashchin 2.75/Sharpai 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Sharpai · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sharpai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 22 · 18:35F. Chashchin—11961232V. Sharpai—8111110113
LJul 13 · 16:25F. Chashchin—87111142V. Sharpai—111192113
LJul 8 · 16:05F. Chashchin—5980V. Sharpai—1111113
LFeb 12 · 18:35F. Chashchin—9360V. Sharpai—1111113
WJan 29 · 16:05F. Chashchin—11511113V. Sharpai—911571
WJan 16 · 18:05F. Chashchin—116115113V. Sharpai—61121182
LJan 8 · 13:35F. Chashchin—39100V. Sharpai—1111123
F. Chashchin10
WSep 7 · 17:35F. Chashchin2.10661211113V. Hainiuk1.67111110692WSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113
V. Sharpai10
WSep 7 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.20310100V. Sharpai1.611112123LSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671LAug 31 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.50117481V. Chumak2.5091111113LAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113
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