TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049508
Played Aug 31Finished
Viktor Sharpai
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711411811––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeViktor Sharpai to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingViktor Sharpai above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Viktor Sharpai at 61.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Sharpai 3–2 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:33What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sharpai
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sharpai 1324 vs Chumak 1425
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sharpai 20% vs Chumak 40%
Chumak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sharpai 20% vs Chumak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sharpai -2 · Chumak -3
Chumak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sharpai) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sharpai form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSharpai 1.50 / Chumak 2.50
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Sharpai)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13049508
Sharpai1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 43 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Chumak2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSharpai3wins
AwayChumak2wins
Sharpai leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSharpai75%3 of 4
AwayChumakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sharpai4Chumak1n = 5Sharpai took 4 of 5
S2Sharpai2Chumak3n = 5Chumak took 3 of 5
S3Sharpai3Chumak2n = 5Sharpai took 3 of 5
S4Sharpai2Chumak2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSharpaiChumakS − CBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match35.836.4−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSharpaiChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 559 vs 273 / 55046.7%49.6%261 / 559 vs 273 / 550Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SharpaiSharpai 1.50/Chumak 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Sharpai · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 17:05V. Sharpai—117481V. Chumak—91111113
LAug 24 · 15:05V. Sharpai—481261V. Chumak—111110113
WFeb 19 · 17:05V. Sharpai—12128113V. Chumak—10101171
WFeb 12 · 14:35V. Sharpai—1111113V. Chumak—9870
WFeb 4 · 18:05V. Sharpai—111011113V. Chumak—912771
V. Sharpai10
WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671LAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
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