TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061872
Played Sep 2Finished
Ruslan Serhyenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121311411711––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:53 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Serhyenko above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 55.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Serhyenko 43–34 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 34 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chumak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-34 in 77
Serhyenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serhyenko 1245 vs Chumak 1453
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serhyenko 40% vs Chumak 80%
Chumak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serhyenko 40% vs Chumak 60%
Chumak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Serhyenko +1 · Chumak +3
Chumak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerhyenko 2.10 / Chumak 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Chumak)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13061872
Serhyenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 66 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 65
Chumak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it61% 28 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerhyenko3wins
AwayChumak7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerhyenko60%3 of 5
AwayChumak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serhyenko5Chumak5n = 10split evenly
S2Serhyenko6Chumak4n = 10Serhyenko took 6 of 10
S3Serhyenko5Chumak5n = 10split evenly
S4Serhyenko3Chumak4n = 7Chumak took 4 of 7
S5Serhyenko1Chumak5n = 6Chumak took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerhyenkoChumakS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.9−1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerhyenkoChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 601 vs 276 / 55344.1%49.9%265 / 601 vs 276 / 553Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakSerhyenko 2.10/Chumak 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.2%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 19:05R. Serhyenko—10780V. Chumak—1211113
LAug 24 · 16:05R. Serhyenko—11851172V. Chumak—811117113
WAug 21 · 13:05R. Serhyenko—1111113V. Chumak—9980
WJul 30 · 19:05R. Serhyenko—1111107113V. Chumak—66121162
WJul 27 · 19:55R. Serhyenko—1111123V. Chumak—93100
LJun 25 · 13:55R. Serhyenko—911115132V. Chumak—115811153
LJun 22 · 14:35R. Serhyenko—511141V. Chumak—11711113
LJun 18 · 15:35R. Serhyenko—101181162V. Chumak—123115113
LJun 10 · 19:35R. Serhyenko—67111192V. Chumak—111197113
LJun 1 · 17:05R. Serhyenko—11711642V. Chumak—811611113
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100LAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183
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