TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061629
Played Sep 2Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116117611511
Denys Boltenkov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 84 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 54.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 1–1 Denys Boltenkov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:03What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1448 vs Boltenkov 1480
Boltenkov
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 80% vs Boltenkov 100%
Boltenkov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 60% vs Boltenkov 90%
Boltenkov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +4 · Boltenkov +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chumak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltenkov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.80 / Boltenkov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chumak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13061629
Chumak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it61% 28 of 46
Boltenkov1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChumak1wins
AwayBoltenkov1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChumakBoltenkovC − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.539.0+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 555 vs 13 / 2049.9%65%277 / 555 vs 13 / 20Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.80/Boltenkov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Boltenkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak—51111652D. Boltenkov—116711113
WAug 21 · 19:35V. Chumak—11813113D. Boltenkov—3111171
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100LAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113LSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113LSep 3 · 14:05A. Azarov5.50941111113D. Boltenkov1.1311118642WSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 18:55A. Azarov3.408560D. Boltenkov1.301111113WSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113WSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113WSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
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