TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061175
Played Sep 2Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311611116811811
Denys Boltenkov
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 55.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 2–0 Denys Boltenkov Denys Boltenkov has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:53What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Elfemov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1361 vs Boltenkov 1414
Boltenkov
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 20% vs Boltenkov 80%
Boltenkov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 50% vs Boltenkov 70%
Boltenkov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +1 · Boltenkov +3
Boltenkov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Elfemov) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltenkov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 1.67 / Boltenkov 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Elfemov)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13061175
Elfemov1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 114 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it83% 84 of 101
Boltenkov2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeElfemov2wins
AwayBoltenkov0wins
Elfemov leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricElfemovBoltenkovE − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.032.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 446 vs 9 / 1659.9%56.3%267 / 446 vs 9 / 16Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovElfemov 1.67/Boltenkov 2.10
Miss
What we said
54%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Boltenkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 12:35I. Elfemov—91111113D. Boltenkov—115571
WAug 21 · 14:35I. Elfemov—14411113D. Boltenkov—1211851
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113LSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113LSep 3 · 14:05A. Azarov5.50941111113D. Boltenkov1.1311118642WSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 18:55A. Azarov3.408560D. Boltenkov1.301111113WSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113WSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
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