TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067626
Played Sep 3Finished
Yevhen Bielokon
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711117810––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhen Bielokon above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-10
Point 74 set 4, 8-10 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 58.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Bielokon 9–12 Ivan Elfemov Yevhen Bielokon has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Elfemov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Elfemov
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bielokon 1283 vs Elfemov 1321
Elfemov
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bielokon 40% vs Elfemov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bielokon 40% vs Elfemov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bielokon -2 · Elfemov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Elfemov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBielokon 2.20 / Elfemov 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Elfemov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067626
Bielokon2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 48 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Elfemov1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 115 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 84 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBielokon5wins
AwayElfemov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBielokon80%4 of 5
AwayElfemov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bielokon5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S2Bielokon5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S3Bielokon5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S4Bielokon3Elfemov6n = 9Elfemov took 6 of 9
S5Bielokon2Elfemov1n = 3Bielokon took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBielokonElfemovB − EBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.9+1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBielokonElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 568 vs 269 / 45248.1%59.5%273 / 568 vs 269 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovBielokon 2.20/Elfemov 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon—11117113I. Elfemov—491111
LAug 26 · 19:05Y. Bielokon—8911101I. Elfemov—11116123
WAug 21 · 19:05Y. Bielokon—81111133I. Elfemov—1199111
LAug 16 · 19:55Y. Bielokon—912981I. Elfemov—111011113
WAug 6 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—118116113I. Elfemov—91151172
WJul 29 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—1191110113I. Elfemov—51191282
LJul 28 · 17:55Y. Bielokon—7970I. Elfemov—1111113
LJul 22 · 19:05Y. Bielokon—117761I. Elfemov—91111113
LJul 16 · 17:55Y. Bielokon—91112892I. Elfemov—1161011113
WJul 15 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—11115113I. Elfemov—571161
Y. Bielokon10
LSep 3 · 18:35A. Azarov1.91117113113Y. Bielokon1.8021161142LSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113LSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113LSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113WSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113LSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113LSep 2 · 13:55Y. Bielokon1.73912111172A. Azarov2.00111444113WAug 27 · 19:25A. Azarov2.1011119192Y. Bielokon1.67861111113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
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