TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067198
Played Sep 3Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101113113117––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 70.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 11–2 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chumak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-2 in 13
Chumak
Correct
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1455 vs Elfemov 1348
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 60% vs Elfemov 80%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 70% vs Elfemov 50%
Chumak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +1 · Elfemov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.50 / Elfemov 2.50
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Chumak)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067198
Chumak1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 56 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it63% 31 of 49
Elfemov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 38 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak8wins
AwayElfemov2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumak100%5 of 5
AwayElfemov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S2Chumak4Elfemov6n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S3Chumak7Elfemov3n = 10Chumak took 7 of 10
S4Chumak5Elfemov4n = 9Chumak took 5 of 9
S5Chumak5Elfemov0n = 5Chumak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakElfemovC − EBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.240.6+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 559 vs 271 / 45450.1%59.7%280 / 559 vs 271 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.50/Elfemov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak—1111123I. Elfemov—36100
WAug 25 · 16:05V. Chumak—11811113I. Elfemov—911581
WAug 21 · 18:05V. Chumak—5111211113I. Elfemov—111310662
WAug 18 · 15:05V. Chumak—11511113I. Elfemov—711761
WJul 30 · 16:05V. Chumak—1181111113I. Elfemov—61113872
LJul 9 · 17:05V. Chumak—971151I. Elfemov—11119113
WJun 25 · 17:25V. Chumak—611812113I. Elfemov—117111082
WJun 18 · 14:05V. Chumak—131227113I. Elfemov—1110111182
WJun 15 · 17:25V. Chumak—911117123I. Elfemov—115911102
LJun 8 · 17:35V. Chumak—11111191I. Elfemov—13139113
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100LAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183
I. Elfemov10
WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
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