TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049608
Played Aug 31Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111179111618––
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 16-18
Point 87 set 4, 16-18 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 56.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 34–43 Ruslan Serhyenko Valentyn Chumak has won 34 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-43 in 77
Serhyenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1443 vs Serhyenko 1232
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 40% vs Serhyenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 40% vs Serhyenko 20%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +1 · Serhyenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.61 / Serhyenko 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Chumak)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049608
Chumak1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 52 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it61% 28 of 46
Serhyenko2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 64 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak7wins
AwaySerhyenko3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumak100%5 of 5
AwaySerhyenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chumak4Serhyenko6n = 10Serhyenko took 6 of 10
S3Chumak5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Chumak4Serhyenko3n = 7Chumak took 4 of 7
S5Chumak5Serhyenko1n = 6Chumak took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakSerhyenkoC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.3+1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 549 vs 263 / 59749.7%44.1%273 / 549 vs 263 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.61/Serhyenko 2.20
Miss
What we said
60.1%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 19:05V. Chumak—1211113R. Serhyenko—10780
WAug 24 · 16:05V. Chumak—811117113R. Serhyenko—11851172
LAug 21 · 13:05V. Chumak—9980R. Serhyenko—1111113
LJul 30 · 19:05V. Chumak—66121162R. Serhyenko—1111107113
LJul 27 · 19:55V. Chumak—93100R. Serhyenko—1111123
WJun 25 · 13:55V. Chumak—115811153R. Serhyenko—911115132
WJun 22 · 14:35V. Chumak—11711113R. Serhyenko—511141
WJun 18 · 15:35V. Chumak—123115113R. Serhyenko—101181162
WJun 10 · 19:35V. Chumak—111197113R. Serhyenko—67111192
WJun 1 · 17:05V. Chumak—811611113R. Serhyenko—11711642
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
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