TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049565
Played Aug 31Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116115––––
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFedir Chashchin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Fedir Chashchin at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 9–17 Ruslan Serhyenko Fedir Chashchin has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:44What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chashchin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Serhyenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1425 vs Serhyenko 1240
Chashchin
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 80% vs Serhyenko 40%
Chashchin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 70% vs Serhyenko 20%
Chashchin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin +3 · Serhyenko +2
Chashchin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chashchin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chashchin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 1.73 / Serhyenko 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Chashchin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13049565
Chashchin1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 31 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Serhyenko2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 64 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin6wins
AwaySerhyenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChashchin leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin100%5 of 5
AwaySerhyenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chashchin7Serhyenko3n = 10Chashchin took 7 of 10
S3Chashchin6Serhyenko4n = 10Chashchin took 6 of 10
S4Chashchin2Serhyenko5n = 7Serhyenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinSerhyenkoC − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.434.5+1.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 184 vs 263 / 59651.1%44.1%94 / 184 vs 263 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinChashchin 1.73/Serhyenko 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.2%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin—691111113R. Serhyenko—11116432
LAug 6 · 16:35F. Chashchin—5119101R. Serhyenko—11811123
WJul 30 · 16:35F. Chashchin—1111113R. Serhyenko—5930
LJul 22 · 14:05F. Chashchin—7111181R. Serhyenko—11139113
WJul 8 · 14:05F. Chashchin—111185113R. Serhyenko—75111172
WMay 26 · 16:35F. Chashchin—1311113R. Serhyenko—11970
WMay 22 · 07:55F. Chashchin—12118113R. Serhyenko—1081161
LMay 19 · 12:35F. Chashchin—551121R. Serhyenko—11116113
WMay 13 · 12:35F. Chashchin—1211113R. Serhyenko—10570
LMay 7 · 13:55F. Chashchin—412961R. Serhyenko—111011113
F. Chashchin10
LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021LAug 27 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.75914119113F. Chashchin1.40111241172WAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin1.83691111113R. Serhyenko1.8311116432LAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin1.83691111113R. Serhyenko1.8311116432
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