TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049528
Played Aug 31Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012211711––
Fedir Chashchin
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeFedir Chashchin to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Fedir Chashchin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Fedir Chashchin at 56.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 7–17 Fedir Chashchin Valentyn Chumak has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chashchin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Chashchin
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1425 vs Chashchin 1419
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 60% vs Chashchin 80%
Chashchin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 40% vs Chashchin 70%
Chashchin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak -2 · Chashchin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chashchin) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chashchin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 2.25 / Chashchin 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Chashchin)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13049528
Chumak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Chashchin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 31 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak3wins
AwayChashchin7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChashchin leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChashchin75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak2Chashchin8n = 10Chashchin took 8 of 10
S2Chumak5Chashchin5n = 10split evenly
S3Chumak4Chashchin6n = 10Chashchin took 6 of 10
S4Chumak4Chashchin5n = 9Chashchin took 5 of 9
S5Chumak3Chashchin3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakChashchinChumak − ChashchinBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.742.9−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakChashchinBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 550 vs 95 / 18649.6%51.1%273 / 550 vs 95 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinChumak 2.25/Chashchin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak—1110271F. Chashchin—91211113
LJul 30 · 15:05V. Chumak—811611102F. Chashchin—117114123
WJul 9 · 15:05V. Chumak—411511113F. Chashchin—11811672
LJun 15 · 19:25V. Chumak—51111972F. Chashchin—118911113
LJun 8 · 15:35V. Chumak—79111262F. Chashchin—1111710113
WJun 3 · 13:35V. Chumak—911411123F. Chashchin—117113102
LMay 7 · 15:55V. Chumak—9840F. Chashchin—1111113
WApr 23 · 15:05V. Chumak—113118113F. Chashchin—71181162
LMar 11 · 16:55V. Chumak—591171F. Chashchin—11115113
LMar 3 · 18:05V. Chumak—411571F. Chashchin—11911113
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
F. Chashchin10
LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021LAug 27 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.75914119113F. Chashchin1.40111241172WAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin1.83691111113R. Serhyenko1.8311116432LAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113
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