TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049699
Played Aug 31Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117611115811
Fedir Chashchin
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Fedir Chashchin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 61.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 10–9 Fedir Chashchin Fedir Chashchin has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1476 vs Chashchin 1391
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Chashchin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 70% vs Chashchin 50%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -1 · Chashchin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chashchin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.57 / Chashchin 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kaganovych)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049699
Kaganovych1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 123 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 107
Chashchin2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych5wins
AwayChashchin5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych60%3 of 5
AwayChashchin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych5Chashchin5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaganovych7Chashchin3n = 10Kaganovych took 7 of 10
S3Kaganovych2Chashchin8n = 10Chashchin took 8 of 10
S4Kaganovych5Chashchin4n = 9Kaganovych took 5 of 9
S5Kaganovych2Chashchin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychChashchinK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.2+3.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychChashchinBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 542 vs 91 / 18162.2%50.3%337 / 542 vs 91 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.57/Chashchin 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kaganovych—9111091F. Chashchin—11712113
LJul 13 · 13:25V. Kaganovych—119881F. Chashchin—81111113
WJun 15 · 17:55V. Kaganovych—11118113F. Chashchin—741191
WJun 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych—1181214113F. Chashchin—511141222
WMay 13 · 17:05V. Kaganovych—11119113F. Chashchin—451171
WMar 3 · 15:05V. Kaganovych—811911123F. Chashchin—118117102
LFeb 23 · 17:35V. Kaganovych—89100F. Chashchin—1111123
WJan 28 · 15:35V. Kaganovych—71111113F. Chashchin—116871
LDec 23 · 13:35V. Kaganovych—611121062F. Chashchin—1151012113
LApr 14 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—111110772F. Chashchin—841211113
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
F. Chashchin10
LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021LAug 27 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.75914119113F. Chashchin1.40111241172WAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin1.83691111113R. Serhyenko1.8311116432LAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113
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