TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008618
Played Aug 25Finished
Andrii Lifanov
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111151189111311
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Lifanov above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 98 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 64.8%
98 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lifanov 15–22 Vitalii Kaganovych Andrii Lifanov has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-22 in 37
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lifanov 1408 vs Kaganovych 1476
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lifanov 40% vs Kaganovych 80%
Kaganovych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lifanov 70% vs Kaganovych 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lifanov -1 · Kaganovych +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLifanov 2.38 / Kaganovych 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kaganovych)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13008618
Lifanov2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 19 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Kaganovych1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 123 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 87 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLifanov3wins
AwayKaganovych7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLifanov20%1 of 5
AwayKaganovych60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lifanov5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S2Lifanov4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Lifanov4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Lifanov2Kaganovych6n = 8Kaganovych took 6 of 8
S5Lifanov2Kaganovych3n = 5Kaganovych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLifanovKaganovychL − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.941.4−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLifanovKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 359 vs 340 / 55155.2%61.7%198 / 359 vs 340 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychLifanov 2.38/Kaganovych 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov—811119133V. Kaganovych—115811112
LAug 10 · 16:25A. Lifanov—122251V. Kaganovych—101111113
LAug 3 · 18:05A. Lifanov—81060V. Kaganovych—1112113
WJul 31 · 19:55A. Lifanov—511116113V. Kaganovych—11271172
WJul 27 · 13:55A. Lifanov—11117113V. Kaganovych—981171
LJul 22 · 14:55A. Lifanov—12211892V. Kaganovych—1011211113
LJul 14 · 19:25A. Lifanov—11115642V. Kaganovych—691111113
LJul 10 · 20:25A. Lifanov—11891172V. Kaganovych—811119113
LJul 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov—781151V. Kaganovych—11119113
LJun 30 · 18:35A. Lifanov—8770V. Kaganovych—1111113
A. Lifanov10
LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112LSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670WAug 26 · 19:35A. Lifanov1.50713511113V. Sydorenko2.50111111592WAug 26 · 17:35A. Azarov2.509111191A. Lifanov1.5011713113WAug 26 · 15:35D. Boltenkov1.809640A. Lifanov1.911111113WAug 26 · 14:35A. Lifanov1.501411113I. Elfemov2.5012870WAug 26 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.381112961A. Lifanov1.5361411113
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113
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