TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049693
Played Aug 31Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1198111188111214
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 103 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 69.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 38–29 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 29 of their 67 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-29 in 67
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 9 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1450 vs Serhyenko 1251
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 40% vs Serhyenko 20%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Serhyenko 20%
Kaganovych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +1 · Serhyenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.40 / Serhyenko 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Kaganovych)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13049693
Kaganovych1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 123 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 107
Serhyenko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 64 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych5wins
AwaySerhyenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych50%3 of 6
AwaySerhyenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych6Serhyenko4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaganovych6Serhyenko4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych3Serhyenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychSerhyenkoK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.534.9+2.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 547 vs 264 / 59862%44.2%339 / 547 vs 264 / 598Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.40/Serhyenko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—118118122R. Serhyenko—911811143
LAug 25 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—116981R. Serhyenko—61111113
LAug 24 · 18:05V. Kaganovych—810110R. Serhyenko—1112133
WJul 27 · 17:25V. Kaganovych—81111113R. Serhyenko—117681
LJul 15 · 18:35V. Kaganovych—71290R. Serhyenko—1114113
LJul 14 · 14:55V. Kaganovych—13117962R. Serhyenko—1161111113
WJun 1 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—11611113R. Serhyenko—911691
WMay 27 · 14:35V. Kaganovych—61111113R. Serhyenko—114631
WMay 13 · 19:05V. Kaganovych—1114113R. Serhyenko—61270
WMay 11 · 18:35V. Kaganovych—1111113R. Serhyenko—6580
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
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