TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049639
Played Aug 31Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911119113––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 60 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 54.0%
60 points drawn · the score is 14 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 52–44 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 44 of their 96 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-44 in 96
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 8 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1463 vs Chumak 1460
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 40% vs Chumak 60%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Chumak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -2 · Chumak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.80 / Chumak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaganovych)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13049639
Kaganovych1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 123 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 107
Chumak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych5wins
AwayChumak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych83.3%5 of 6
AwayChumak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych6Chumak4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych5Chumak5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaganovych3Chumak7n = 10Chumak took 7 of 10
S4Kaganovych4Chumak4n = 8split evenly
S5Kaganovych3Chumak2n = 5Kaganovych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychChumakK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.5−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 543 vs 272 / 54662.1%49.8%337 / 543 vs 272 / 546Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.80/Chumak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 15:05V. Kaganovych—1311113V. Chumak—11890
WAug 24 · 19:05V. Kaganovych—118812113V. Chumak—811111082
LAug 18 · 16:05V. Kaganovych—51311732V. Chumak—1111811113
LAug 17 · 17:05V. Kaganovych—127671V. Chumak—101111113
LAug 10 · 14:25V. Kaganovych—61181162V. Chumak—118118113
LAug 3 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—681191V. Chumak—11113113
WJul 27 · 15:55V. Kaganovych—1111611113V. Chumak—64111382
LJul 22 · 16:55V. Kaganovych—3480V. Chumak—1111113
WJul 20 · 18:25V. Kaganovych—1161311123V. Chumak—411157102
WJul 10 · 14:25V. Kaganovych—111110113V. Chumak—791291
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
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