TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13068178
Played Sep 3Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119611411––
Denys Boltenkov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 71 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Denys Boltenkov at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 1–1 Denys Boltenkov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Boltenkov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1461 vs Boltenkov 1463
Boltenkov
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 80% vs Boltenkov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 70% vs Boltenkov 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +2 · Boltenkov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boltenkov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltenkov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 2.00 / Boltenkov 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Boltenkov)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13068178
Chumak2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Boltenkov1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 11 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChumak1wins
AwayBoltenkov1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChumakBoltenkovC − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.539.0+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 557 vs 14 / 2250.1%63.6%279 / 557 vs 14 / 22Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovChumak 2.00/Boltenkov 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Boltenkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak—51111652D. Boltenkov—116711113
WAug 21 · 19:35V. Chumak—11813113D. Boltenkov—3111171
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100LAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113LSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113LSep 3 · 14:05A. Azarov5.50941111113D. Boltenkov1.1311118642WSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 18:55A. Azarov3.408560D. Boltenkov1.301111113WSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113WSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113WSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.