TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067564
Played Sep 3Finished
Denys Boltenkov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117511711––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingDenys Boltenkov above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Denys Boltenkov at 56.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Denys Boltenkov 1–2 Ivan Elfemov Denys Boltenkov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Boltenkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltenkov 1483 vs Elfemov 1332
Boltenkov
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltenkov 80% vs Elfemov 60%
Boltenkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltenkov 90% vs Elfemov 40%
Boltenkov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltenkov +1 · Elfemov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Boltenkov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltenkov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltenkov 1.73 / Elfemov 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Boltenkov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067564
Boltenkov1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 11 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Elfemov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 38 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBoltenkov1wins
AwayElfemov2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderElfemov leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltenkov1Elfemov2n = 3Elfemov took 2 of 3
S2Boltenkov2Elfemov1n = 3Boltenkov took 2 of 3
S3Boltenkov0Elfemov3n = 3Elfemov took 3 of 3
S4Boltenkov1Elfemov2n = 3Elfemov took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBoltenkovElfemovB − EBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.042.7−4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltenkovElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 23 vs 270 / 45365.2%59.6%15 / 23 vs 270 / 453Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovBoltenkov 1.73/Elfemov 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 15:25D. Boltenkov—1111611113I. Elfemov—13611882
LAug 26 · 12:35D. Boltenkov—115571I. Elfemov—91111113
LAug 21 · 14:35D. Boltenkov—1211851I. Elfemov—14411113
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113WSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113LSep 3 · 14:05A. Azarov5.50941111113D. Boltenkov1.1311118642WSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 18:55A. Azarov3.408560D. Boltenkov1.301111113WSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113WSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113WSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
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